Despite David Cameron failing on his long-stated intent that one third of his cabinet would be female, there are now at least more women in cabinet than old Etonians in a highly tactical reshuffle that has its focus firmly on the 2015 General election.

Still lagging behind in most opinion polls and far from the 6-7% lead over Labour that Cameron will need to secure an overall majority next May - theres iron focus from number 10 on the tough task ahead of the next election.

And it presents a potentially uncomfortable challenge for Labour and Ed Miliband in particular. The reshuffle shows the Tories are trying to make the election more about personality than policy.

If they can succeed in this aim, then it can only be bad news for Miliband, who cannot match Camerons presentational skills.

It is clear that the PM is keen to send a personal message to the nation with this particular shuffling of the deck. Ministers toxic to the potential of a Conservative majority in 2015, the need to present government as less of a old, male-dominated chumocracy, Europe and the desire to avoid difficult by-elections also play a key part of this reshuffle.

In terms of making the cabinet younger the departure of experienced older male players like Ken Clarke were tipped by many Westminster watchers. However in a surprise move from a previously loyal Cameron, Michael Gove is now out of education, to be replaced by Nicky Morgan. Its unlikely Nicky Morgan or any of the new batch of ministerial appointments will have a major effect on actual policy with less than 10 months left of a Government thats already run out of legislation ideas the Coalition can agree upon.

But this shock appointment ticks two important boxes - Morgan is both female and more importantly, shes not Michael Gove .

There are around 875,000 teachers, teaching assistants, support and ancillary staff employed just in publicly-funded schools. This measure alone bring a figure of 1,350 per Westminster seat. Add to that partners, retirees, family and friends and youre looking at an enormous voter group. And with the election likely to be won or lost in marginal seats, where majorities are measured in hundreds rather than thousands, its easy to see why Cameron feared Gove becoming a liability.

Goves education reform proposals have been bitterly opposed by teachers - one poll showed opposition to his performance-related pay proposal at 75% among LEA maintained schools. Goves association with Free schools policy and its recent controversies over teaching standards and Trojan Horse plots has also done little to improve his popularity.

Before the last election, one polling company found teachers voting intention broke down as CON 33% LAB 32% LD 27%. By 2014 polling of the same segment by the same company had the Tories at just 16%, Labour on a significant 57% and the Lib Dems on just 8%.

Read more:
David Cameron's culling of Old Etonian chums is a reshuffle masterstroke

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July 16, 2014 at 2:48 am by Mr HomeBuilder
Category: Cabinet Replacement