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    From the Barns: From the ground up AgriNews – Agri News - February 20, 2021 by Mr HomeBuilder

    The 2020-2021 winter grazing season was finished up here at River Oak on Friday, Jan. 22. That concluded 66 days of grazing our stockpiled fescue and red clover. We were running 104 head of yearling heifers and a pair of lead cows. Overall the program went very smooth with no heavy snow and moderate temperatures for easy water supplies. That winter graze yielded 76 animal units per acre, an impressive amount considering the dry fall we experienced. We did observe the heifers showing some reluctance to consume the very driest fescue leaves, a scenario we usually dont experience.

    I am happy with the condition of all the paddocks we grazed, even though there were a few days that resulted in a little pugging from either light rain or melting snow. The condition of our new south 20 paddocks remains undetermined since we were attempting to graze the heavy red clover stand to allow the grass seedlings a head start next spring. We hope that was not overdone. We plan to frost seed fescue and no clover there this month.

    Speaking of which, it is frost seeding time. However, I dont think we will be out there with the ATV seeder just yet. We are looking at 10 days of very cold temperatures and as of yet an undetermined amount of snow. I really dont like to place frost seeding in very much snow, since runoff and or pooling can cause losses. A little snow is welcome to help application accuracy. We have several different recipes for different paddocks to try and improve each according to their needs. Most will still receive the common 3 to 4 pounds of red clover per acre.

    For those of you who have been traditional and continuous graziers and are thinking about making the change to rotational grazing, you might want to check out the online zoom series entitled Regenerative Grazing Fundamentals that was scheduled to begin at 9 a.m. Feb. 11 and continues Feb. 18 and 25. You would need to register at: https://thelandconnection.org/event/grazing-series.

    Dont be scared off by the term regenerative grazing. Those of us who have been at it for a while, that is, Adaptive Management Intensive Rotational Grazing, didnt coin that term. That new term is what happens when too many soil scientists and desk jockeys get interested in the practices. Also, it sure is a lot harder to say regenerative than rotational.

    Jane and I felt good to receive our first COVID vaccine at the local Hy-Vee store on Jan. 27. That was a whole week ahead of when the local bureaucracy, the health department, finally announced a method to schedule free market at work. Stay safe and sane and take in a virtual grazing event.

    Original post:
    From the Barns: From the ground up AgriNews - Agri News

    Welcoming the true arrival of spring in the garden – Irish Post - February 20, 2021 by Mr HomeBuilder

    SPRING opened her locked wardrobe this month with the arrival of La Feile Brid.

    Many seem to think that March 1is the official start of spring but Im sticking with the long-established Irish feast day.

    A cocks foot, the measure of daylight gained each passing day (since the winter solstice), is not a generous measure, but by now it has added a glorious thirty-five minutes of illumination to our days.

    In as many days again, it will have grown to an hour and a half, sometimes more, during bright sunlit days.

    For the past eleven months we have not alone been confined indoors by Covid-19 restrictions, but by darkness, and extremely variable weather conditions.

    In fact, since autumn we have been challenged by storms, wind, rain, and of late, periods of frost, snow, and biting cold.

    But lucky those who have a garden to tend, for there they found refuge in venturing out occasionally to admire at close quarters the brave blooms that shine in winter.

    The sun has slowly and imperceptibly risen that little bit earlier each morning, warming the frozen soil and all it contains.

    Soon, the hedgerows will stir into new fresh greenery and life will return beneath their sheltering stony skirts.

    There is something new to applaud these opening days, not least the many varieties of crocus.

    Coinciding with the snowdrops, crocustommasinianusis showing colour but few realise that it is prolific at self-seeding.

    A modest batch can turn into an impressive multiple in a very few years.

    Mature gardens where it had perhaps been planted in minuscule numbers in the past, can seem filled now with the narrow, mauve flowers which fling back their segments at every burst of spring sunshine.

    The most eager of its clan, they really can grow 'like weeds' - but never become a nuisance.

    What you do not see are the seeds which lie hidden at the base of each tube.

    These are generally thought to be distributed by ants.

    However, the real joy of February and later are the camellias, arch deceivers no less, for they look almost too exotic to succeed outdoors as easily as they do.

    Unfortunately, a snowflake, a blade of grass, a blackthorn shoot has more perfume.

    No spring garden is complete without at least one early variety and the best (and earliest) include those sold under the species name Sasanqua.

    Look for stockists on computers or laptops for they are rare enough on garden outlet sales tables.

    This charming variety has graced our garden here for decades and it takes top position for reliability and performance year on year (an illustration of Yuletide has appeared on this page recently).

    It blooms in the weeksleading to Christmaswith a willingness that staggers and continues to the end of February and later.

    Be assured also that they take kindly to pot culture.

    Buy a decent sized, terracotta, or glazed pot for one of these, and fill it with a mixture of lime-free soil from the garden, to which has been added a generous dressing of leaf-mould, commercial potting compost, or pine-needles.

    Plant into this mixture as big a camellia as you can afford, bearing in mind that the older you are, the more you need to invest in something that will not take a decade and more to reach a commanding size.

    Debbie is a later variety for late March/April, a reliable, free-flowering, vigorous variety which I also rate highly, but if red is not in keeping with your gardens colour scheme, opt for Jury's Yellow (very unusual) White Nun or Lavinia Maggi. I have only one word for all OF these: superb.

    See the rest here:
    Welcoming the true arrival of spring in the garden - Irish Post

    Forage yield, quality improve with frost-seeded legumes – Herald-Whig - February 9, 2021 by Mr HomeBuilder

    Frost seeding, a method of broadcasting seeds over snow- or frost-covered pastures, improves poor pastures at a low cost.

    Seeds work their way into the soil and germinate as the ground freezes and thaws between winter and spring.

    But University of Missouri Extension state forage specialist Craig Roberts said forage yield and quality improve when legumes are frost-seeded at the right time.

    In most of Missouri, broadcast annual lespedeza, red clover or white clover in mid-February when there is snow or heavy frost, and into late February in the northern counties.

    Seeds need the freeze-and-thaw action for good seed-to-soil contact and to pull the seed to the soils top layer, Robert said. The best contact occurs on exposed soil. Plant residue prevents seeds from reaching soil, but the hoofing action of cattle can work seeds into the soil.

    New plants need time to grow without competition from grass canopies for light and nutrients, so apply little or no nitrogen in spring. Graze or clip frost-seeded pastures in spring and summer to allow light to reach seedlings.

    Legumes extend the grazing season by producing better in late spring and summer when fescue does not grow or grows slowly.

    Adding red clover to common tall fescue fields solves some animal health issues, Robert said.

    More than 90% of Missouri fields contain toxic Kentucky 31 tall fescue, and adding legumes limits fescue toxicosis by diluting pastures.

    Adding red clover also reduces vasoconstriction, the narrowing of blood vessels. In summer, vasoconstriction causes heat to build up in an animals core body. In winter, blood does not flow to extremities, and hooves fall off. Compounds in red clover open blood flow to prevent this.

    Preventing fruit tree disease

    Winter is a great time for orchard owners and fruit tree gardeners to create a plan for the coming growing season.

    Keeping a journal of activities of management and care is essential in caring for fruit trees, University of Illinois Extension horticulture educator Andrew Holsinger said.

    The most effective way to care for tree fruit diseases is to know when to spray fungicides and herbicides. A tree often is infected long before symptoms are observed, and prevention is key to tree health, especially with fungal diseases.

    Some sprays can only be applied in late winter and early spring to prevent disease before the leaves have emerged, Holsinger said. Diseases often develop because a spray wasnt applied.

    Fruit tree disease prevention starts early by choosing disease-resistant varieties. Only plant top-quality, healthy nursery stock to avoid failure.

    Good tree sanitation also is important in preventing disease.

    Inspect trees for mummies, which are unpicked, withered and infected fruits that carry spores and can cause problems during the next season. Cleaning up fallen leaves and fruits after the harvest is a good practice to reduce the number of fungal spores, especially apple scab, for the next year.

    Pruning is probably the most neglected aspect of disease control, Holsinger said. Pruning allows for more air circulation, light penetration and more adequate spray coverage.

    View post:
    Forage yield, quality improve with frost-seeded legumes - Herald-Whig

    OPINION: The Dollars and Cents of America’s Wild Horses – Pagosa Daily Post - February 9, 2021 by Mr HomeBuilder

    Only a tiny minority of Americans want to see American wild horses sent to slaughter to make room for more livestock grazing on public lands.

    Obviously, we dont see most Americans giving up their hamburgers and steaks, so the demands for beef, lamb and pork are slowly increasing. But do we need to kill wild horses in slaughter houses?

    And is this even a wise use of these publicly-owned wild horses?

    The Questions of Value AriseAre wild horses more valuable in a pet food can and/or sitting in exile, wasting away in a Bureau of Land Management off-range corral costing American taxpayers nearly $100-million per year? Is there a much higher value proposition thats been overlooked?

    What about the undeniable billion-dollar economics of using wild horses in a wildfire fuel abatement role protecting human lives, assets, forest and timber resources, as well as other tertiary benefits?

    Since the codification of the 1971 Free-Roaming Wild Burro and Horse Protection Act five decades ago, there have been many profound breakthroughs and discoveries in science. For instance, modern paleontology informs us that wild horses have successfully maintained habitats in virtually every biome on the planet ranging from sub-arctic to tropical.

    We also now know that wild horses survived the Ice Age in forests, as we read here in Cosmos magazine.

    Given recently discovered facts, as far as equine genetics (including epigenetics), paleontological ecology (habitats and ranges of wild equids based-on fossil records), and through the cultural archaeology of native Americans and their horses, which arguably pre-date the Columbian Period, would planners today draw the same lines on maps defining areas for wild horses under any new law for their protection?

    I seriously doubt it. Comparing what we know today, to what we knew in the 1960s and in early 1971, its clear we knew very little about wild horses, as well as their history and ecology.

    And even by todays standards, we still have much to learn in many areas. Scant funding is provided for the study of American wild horses in comparison to studies related to livestock.

    In a world where we have more people than ever wanting more resources than ever before, financial considerations must not be discounted.

    Native species wild horse reducing wildfire fuels in rugged wilderness terrain. Photos courtesy William E. Simpson II.

    What is the real value of an American wild horse?

    I would respond, to those with love in their hearts; the sum is beyond quantification.

    To those who render meat? An 800-pound horse is worth about $160.00 (20-cents per pound wholesale).

    To those who have knowledge of recent scientific facts and vision; each wild horse is worth at least $72,000.00.

    Why Each American Wild Horse Is Worth About $72,000Each wild horse deployed into and around remote forest and wilderness areas with depleted deer populations can abate 5.5 tons of wildfire fuels (grass and brush) annually about 30 pounds/day/horse.

    As an evolved North American native species, wild horses are quite at-home in and around forests and areas that are virtually inaccessible, especially wilderness areas.

    For comparison, on average, deer consume about 7 pounds of grass and brush per day, per animal. Many remote wilderness areas are poorly suited to commercial livestock grazing due to the extensive predation of calves and lambs, and logistics cost related to poor accessibility and very difficult terrain.

    These and other factors significantly reduce profitability to livestock producers who use public lands grazing permits. Losing calves and lambs is not an option of livestock production.

    And at least in wilderness areas, depleting all of the Apex Predators is unwise, and is what has led to the spread of Chronic Wasting Disease.

    Apex predators have evolved with unique skills that allow them to quickly cull and sick or genetically weak animals from the populations of large and small herbivores. Their predation as it turns-out is vital in preventing deer sick with Chronic Wasting Disease from remaining among populations of healthy deer and spreading the disease. Predators quickly cull diseased deer and elk and that helps to prevent the spread of that deadly disease.

    Western forests are depleted of deer due to poor wildlife management. California and Oregon are down over 2 million deer over the past five decades even as Chronic Wasting Disease is spreading, and is now in at least 27 states. These now missing deer had been abating nearly 3 million tons of grass and brush. It will take decades to correct our depleted deer populations.

    A re-wilded American wild horse, which is resistant to Chronic Wasting Disease, will abate about 5.5 tons of prodigious grass and brush annually in and around forests. 5.5 tons of grass and brush equals roughly 5-7 acres of grass and brush (varies with area), which can easily be maintained by wild horses year-round at nominal levels without any human intervention or the added risk of man-caused wildfires, especially during summer.

    The Value Of Wildfire Reduction By American Wild HorsesAccording to Science Magazine:

    By altering the quantity and distribution of fuel supplies, large herbivores can shape the frequency, intensity, and spatial distribution of fires across a landscape. There are even unique interactions among large herbivore populations that can influence fire regimes.

    In order to accomplish the same task of deployed wild horses in the mitigation of prodigious grass and brush levels in areas of remote and difficult wilderness terrain, it would require 2-men about 4-5 weeks of work, using hand tools, according to at least one article.

    It is important to note that motorized equipment and methods are by law prohibited in wilderness areas, as well as impractical due to rugged terrain.

    Each human laborer requires a minimum wage of about $15.00/hour, which equals $120/day/laborer, or $240.00 per day for two men. This ($240.00/day) is multiplied by the minimum of 4-weeks (20-work days), which equals about $4,800.00 in cost, which is comparable to the effect of one American wild horse grazing for one-year.

    There are also human resource issues involved with this method, which add more costs. So, using man-power, we arrive at a per-acre-cost for grass and brush abatement of $685.71 per acre. This is based upon the greatest average efficiency ($4,800.00 divided by 7-acres treated).

    Now, we look at the comparative costs of using wildlife (wild horses) to do the same job:

    An American wild horse abates excess grass and brush fuel from wildfires on the same 7-acres virtually at no cost to taxpayers.

    In wilderness areas, this is critically important since virtually all traditional fuel treatment method used by the USFS and other agencies are prohibited, with good reason.

    According to the USFS, even in areas where their most cost-effective method fuel treatment is allowed, which is prescribed burning; the cost to taxpayers for that is $400.00 per acre and more.

    The western landscape has tens-of-millions of acres that have annually recurring grass and brush wildfire fuels.

    Native species American wild horses seen cleaning wildfire fuels off a forest floor.

    Prescribed Burning A Terrible Prescription For Controlling Wildfire FuelsBased upon the best recent science related to the health and welfare of humans and wildlife, prescribed burning is a terrible prescription for the control of annual grass and brush wildfire fuels.

    Like wildfires, so-called prescribed burns release millions of tons of toxic compounds as a part of the composition of the smoke that is released into the air. And some wildlife, especially reptiles, amphibians and ground birds are overcome and killed by the smoke and heat. Further still, some prescribed burns get out of control and become uncontrolled wildfires, as we have seen in past situations, destroying hundreds of homes.

    An American wild horse will live about 15-20 years in a wilderness environment and has no human resource issues; they dont need management or pay-checks; they dont sue anyone and they dont start fires.

    Each American wild horse deployed into a wilderness wildfire fuels maintenance role will yield about $72,000.00 in work value over its life ($4,800 each year X 15 years).

    The value of a wild horse in a wildfire fuels mitigation roll is a multiple of 450-times the value of the same horse rendered as meat.

    Its clearly obtuse to even consider using wild horses for slaughter given that on top of the $72,000.00, there is added value to that outlined above in regard to the savings to taxpayers in firefighting costs, increased insurance costs, value of natural resources lost, increase health costs from smoke, loss of economic value in communities due to fire damage to properties leading to loss of tax role values, etc.

    Furthermore, having evolved on the North American continent 55 million years ago, wild horses have documented symbiotic mutualisms with both forest and soils ecosystems that invasive species cattle and sheep do not have as ruminants.

    Wild horses are monogastric digestors (single stomach) and pass both humus and viable native plant seeds back onto the soils they graze, which restores fire-damages soils and allows the evolved symbiotic re-seeding of native plants; critical to the survival of native flora and the fauna dependent on the native flora.

    Furthermore, the ecologically-sound wildfire grazing by native species American wild horses sequesters carbon compounds back into soils. Wildfires and prescribed burns volatilize these compounds into our air and atmosphere, further accelerating climate change

    The Good News!We have a ready-made solution via a draft outline for a legislative bill that could save American taxpayers billions of dollars annually! That draft as well as other information can be found at http://www.WHFB.us

    William E Simpson II

    William E. Simpson II is a naturalist, author, and conservationist living in the Soda Mountain wilderness area among the wild horses that he studies.

    Continue reading here:
    OPINION: The Dollars and Cents of America's Wild Horses - Pagosa Daily Post

    EXTENSION NOTES Winter grass and culled vegetables for cows – Daytona Beach News-Journal - February 4, 2021 by Mr HomeBuilder

    Wendy Mussoline, UF/IFAS Multi-County Agriculture Agent| The Daytona Beach News-Journal

    The winter season is upon us, and that means just about everything except the ryegrass has turned brown. Ryegrass is the beautiful green patch that David Cleggs cows are munching on along the east side of County Road 305, just south of the 304/305 intersection in Bunnell.

    Most beef cows are either pregnant or with calf and their nutritional needs are the highest this time of year. Without proper nutrition, pregnancies fail and lactating mothers cannot keep up with the required milk production to support a healthy calf. Successful cattlemen need to know how to grow forages all year round and so, as Walton Cowart admits, they are first and foremost considered grass farmers.

    Some common cool-season forages grown in our area include ryegrass, oats, cereal rye, pearl millet and clover. Cattlemen that may be interested in reviewing UFs most recent list of recommended varieties should look up the EDIS publication titled 2020 Cool-Season Forage Variety Recommendations for Florida. Dr. Ann Blount is the lead author but contributing UF Forage Specialists from all over the state have provided their two cents. The document provides a description of each forage type, specific varieties recommended, planting dates, seeding rates and lots of practical instruction. If you are not computer savvy, you are welcome to swing by the UF/IFAS Flagler County Extension Office and wed be glad to print you a copy. Cool season forages should be planted around mid-October through mid-November, but its never too early to start planning for next year.

    Another option for hungry cows in the wintertime is culled vegetables. An outstanding opportunity for local cattlemen is to fill their trucks with culled cabbage from the Hollar & Greene packing shed on County Road 305. When they are packing cabbage, the conveyor belt is designed to automatically dump non-marketable cabbage heads and excess outer leaves into a dump truck or trailer. Yesterday I was watching those trailers fill up in just a matter of minutes. The drawback is that cabbage consists mostly (90%) of water and cows often get full before they tap into the real nutritional benefits. With 90% water, that means that 10% is dry matter. Within the dry matter fraction, it contains lots of crude protein (24%) and exceptionally high total digestible nutrients (85%) compared with common forage grasses. While it should not serve as the entire meal, it provides supplemental calories and nutrition.

    Another fantastic resource is the new Comarco Eggplant Processing Plant in Putnam County. They generate approximately 16,000 pounds of culled eggplant, skins and tops every week. The nutritional benefits are higher and more quickly accessible since eggplant consists of only 50% water. The dry matter component of the raw eggplant constituents has 17% crude protein and 70% total digestible nutrients.

    For a list of other culled vegetables and their nutritional benefits for cows, consult the UF EDIS publication titled Utilization of Cull Vegetables as Feedstuffs for Cattle.

    Read this article:
    EXTENSION NOTES Winter grass and culled vegetables for cows - Daytona Beach News-Journal

    Plantin’ by the Signs and other things: Quick takes and February overview – State-Journal.com - February 4, 2021 by Mr HomeBuilder

    Here are a few quick hits on important dates coming up and then the complete February overview as the gardening season gets closer and closer.

    Groundhog Day is Tuesday. If the hog sees his shadow its six more weeks of winter. If he doesnt, the worse is behind us. Then on Wednesday we celebrate the official Midpoint of Winter.

    Seeding grass during the dark moon yields good results. The dark moon rules thru Feb. 10 and is back Feb. 27-28.

    Plowing in January in February even if the water follows you down the furrow. Get it done before March or youll face problems all summer.

    Snow peas by Washingtons birthday, which is Feb. 22. Give it a try if you have the space and your plot is ready.

    Making changes: We have a six-day stretch in February for making changes, Feb. 5-10. The moon will be in the dark phase and the signs moving out of the body beyond anything that functions Sagittarius/legs, Capricorn/knees, and Aquarius/legs.

    Pouring gravel: If you have gravel to pour on a drive or road on your farm, youll need to wait until the light moon returns on the afternoon of Feb. 11 through the 26th. Dont do it now! The same applies for stones on a garden path.

    Ember Days: I cant believe theyre here again so soon, but February features three Ember Days on Feb. 24, 26-27. No planting anywhere on Ember Days, no matter the sign or moon phase.

    MOON PHASES: February begins and ends with the dark moon in force. The new or light moon comes into force at 2:06 p.m. Eastern Standard Time on Feb. 11 and rules until the dark moon returns at 3:17 a.m. on Feb. 27. Between those times, Feb. 12-26, the light moon is in force.

    When the light moon is in force, plant above-ground producers and when the dark moon rules its below-ground producers.

    Check the signs and plant when one of the fertile signs rules in the proper phase of the moon depending on where the veggie will produce. Dont plant when either of the killing signs, Aries or Leo, is in force and dont plant veggies when the flowering signs, Virgo and Libra, rule.

    Dont forget the Ember Days, Feb. 24, 26-27. Feb. 24 is ruled by a killing sign while Feb. 26 and 27 are under a flowering sign. These days arent conducive to planting veggies anyway now theyre just plain off limits!

    Planting in the so-so signs is a viable alternative to the fertile signs. They are Sagittarius, Capricorn, and Aquarius, Feb. 5-11, with the dark moon ruling until just after 2 p.m. on Feb. 11.

    If you can only utilize one aspect of the system for planting, I would suggest going with the moon phases but still avoid the killing signs for any planting and the flowering signs for anything but flowers and the Ember Days this month.

    THE SIGNS: Check to see if the moon is in the light or dark phase (information above) before proceeding with any planting anywhere, or other activities. February begins and ends with the flowering sign Libra (the reins) ruling. Well start by reviewing the flowering signs.

    Flowering days: Libra rules Feb. 1-2 and 28 while Virgo (the bowels) is up for Feb. 26-27. There are five flowering days in February. About the only flowers you can be planting now are pansies since they can stand most weather extremes. But that will begin to change soon as spring approaches, beginning on March 20.

    These are bloom days and flowers planted when they rule should bloom and do so abundantly. Be cautious about planting veggies on flowering days since they tend to spend more time flowering than they do setting fruit. Cautious as in dont do it!

    Fertile days: The signs are accompanied by the phase of the moon in which they occur.

    Scorpio (the secrets), Feb. 3-4, dark moon ruling; Pisces (the feet), Feb. 12-13, light moon; Taurus (the neck), Feb. 16-18, light moon; and Cancer (the breast), Feb. 21-23, light moon.

    There are 10 days this month ruled by the most fertile signs: Scorpio, Pisces, Taurus, and Cancer. All are with the light moon in force except for the two Scorpio days.

    So-so days: Sagittarius (the thighs), Feb. 5-6; Capricorn (the knees), Feb. 7-8; and Aquarius (the legs), Feb. 9-11. There are seven days this month ruled by the so-so signs. The dark moon is in force for all but the latter half of the 11th when the light moon comes to rule. Feb. 5-10 six days will be perfect for making changes. See more about that below.

    Killing days: No planting, transplanting, or dealing with things you want to thrive should occur on these days. Reserve them for anything but planting anywhere be that garden, greenhouse, pot or cold frame. No planting!

    Heres when they rule: Aries (the head) Feb. 14-15 and Leo (the heart), Feb. 24-25. There are just four days in February ruled by the killing signs. And the 24th has the added distinction of being an Ember Day. Thats a day Id just stay in maybe under the house!

    These are great days to finish cleaning up your 2020 garden if you havent yet.

    See original here:
    Plantin' by the Signs and other things: Quick takes and February overview - State-Journal.com

    Flower power! The movement to bring back Britain’s beautiful meadows – The Guardian - February 4, 2021 by Mr HomeBuilder

    On a perfect summer day, the bees drone and a million flowers dance as a dozen people move across the meadow, cutting hay with a rhythmic swish of scythes. As children play, the haymakers pause for refreshments of cake and cider.

    This would resemble a scene from a long-lost rural idyll if the scythes were not Austrian carbon-steel and the children were not identifying flowers on smartphones. After a century in which more than 97% of Britains wildflower-rich meadows were destroyed, meadowland is making a comeback.

    The miraculous properties of meadows and even, improbably, cutting them with scythes are being cherished again. The charity Plantlife has led the creation of 5,000 hectares (12,000 acres) of wildflower-rich meadows since 2013 including 90 meadows to mark the 60th anniversary of the Queens coronation, in a campaign initiated by Prince Charles. Scores of grassroots meadow groups have also sprung up, inspired by everything from Poldarks scything scenes to books by the Cumbrian hill farmer James Rebanks and the West Sussex landowner Isabella Tree. Wildflowers are returning to not just rural, but urban communities. And this year, the governments Green Recovery Fund will create another 500 hectares of meadows, with trainee meadow makers learning the skills of meadow maintenance.

    Even Trevor Dines, Plantlifes botanical specialist, was taken by surprise when he created his own meadow on a small field he bought near his home in north Wales in 2015. The field had been what farmers traditionally describe as improved its grass fertilised and grazed so intensively that delicate wildflowers disappeared. The field had about 20 species of plant. (Many intensively farmed grass fields are now sown with just one rye-grass species.) Dines stripped off this sward to expose the soil and spread fresh hay containing local wildflower seeds from a flower-rich meadow six miles away. This natural seeding technique has been a key principle of the coronation meadows, of which his is one.

    Dines cut the grass once a year in late summer and removed the cuttings, because if cut grass is left on the fields, it cycles nutrients back into the soil, and nutrient-rich soils mean that aggressive grass species smother more delicate wildflowers. Then, last spring, Dines sat down to record what was there: 98 species of plant and, on a single day in late May, 2m individual flowers. They produced, he calculated, 1kg of nectar-sugar a day, which could support 83,000 bees. The transformation has been absolutely astonishing, he says. I dont think people appreciate the bags of sugar being produced in these fields.

    Meadows are, as Dines puts it, crucibles of biodiversity. Up to 40 plant species are found in a square metre of chalk downland meadow. These plants support a tumult of other life; a typical suite of meadow plants provides food for 1,400 invertebrate species. Pollinators such as bees are really important, but its the aphids, thrips, grasshoppers, bugs and beetles living on plant matter, thats the real powerhouse of biodiversity in these areas.

    Meadows are crucial sanctuaries during an extinction crisis, but also offer numerous practical benefits. For a start, they are better for livestock health. If livestock eat species-rich meadow grass, they take in natural herbal medicines, such as birds foot trefoil, which reduces gut parasites. (Birds foot trefoil also supports 150 invertebrate species.) More diverse meadows supply more minerals too. Were giving our livestock a really nice varied diet, which is what they want, says Dines.

    The name water meadow gives a clue to another practical function: valley-bottom meadows hold flood water (and new estates often named after the meadows they destroy have been foolishly built on them). And, Dines says, meadows excel at storing carbon; grasslands in Britain store more carbon than any other habitat. Whats really exciting is that the biggest levels of carbon sequestration happen when you convert an arable field into a species-rich pasture, says Dines. Once established, a meadow is a stable store of carbon; plough it up, and the carbon is released.

    Helen Baczkowska of Norfolk Wildlife Trust is another meadow maker. Working with farmers, she is restoring lost meadows by re-seeding them with hay from roadside verges, virtually the last sanctuary for wildflowers in parts of lowland Britain.

    Meadows were celebrated by the Romantics. Among the meadows hay cocks / Tis beautiful to lie / When pleasantly the day looks / And gold like is the sky, wrote the rural poet John Clare in the 1800s. Their destruction is often blamed on the dig for victory campaign during the second world war, but the loss, says Baczkowska, was because meadows ceased to have an economic function. For a long time grasslands were really needed to feed cattle and working horses on mixed farms in winter, she says. Since the 30s, farms have fed grain to their livestock and, of course, moved away from horse power. Even those meadows that werent ploughed up became in very poor condition because there was no incentive to manage them, she says.

    During the second half of the 20th century and into this one, the destruction of meadows quietly continued. Now, however, Baczkowska sees a new awakening to their beauty and importance, and believes this has intensified since the start of the pandemic. Ive seen a real change in the last 10 years. People are looking more and more to what they can do on their local patch. Not just gardens but playing fields, parish grounds and commons. Pollinator strips and wildflower strips are so easy to deliver, and when people marry it with using local seed, thats great.

    Most meadow-makers buy wildflower seeds for the initial creation. However, Baczkowska explains, commercially produced seed is grown to be harvested on the same day, so new knapweed flowers, for instance, will flower together and go to seed in the same week. Hand-collecting local seed as Norfolk Wildlife Trust does in partnership with Norfolk Farming and Wildlife Advisory Group, a charity run by farmers gives meadows a much longer flowering season, making them more useful to pollinators, and more beautiful. Keeping local seed types going will give you this resilience to climate change. Its not just the diversity of species; diversity of genetics is really important, says Baczkowska.

    The individuality of different meadows is their strength. On Landseer park, in the heart of urban Ipswich, wildflower-rich chalk banks created by the charity Buglife and an inspiring young conservationist, David Dowding, an Ipswich borough council ranger, are now home to scarce butterflies such as the dark green fritillary. Off the busy A19 between York and Selby is Three Hagges, a woodmeadow created in 2012 by Ros Forbes Adam, whose family has farmed the area for 350 years.

    Forbes Adam cheerfully admits she hadnt a clue when she began creating what she and her husband originally planned as a new wood on a 10-hectare barley field. She obtained a Forestry Commission grant to plant trees but, crucially, also secured an agreement to make meadows on 40% of the site. What emerged is what ecologists call wood pasture or woodmeadow, a mosaic of grass and woodland that was once widespread in ancient Britain and still occurs in Scandinavia and eastern Europe.

    More than 1,000 invertebrate species have now been recorded, including 34 bee species, 26 butterfly species and 43 hoverfly species none of which were found on the old barley field. Three Hagges, which is open to the public, has been a sanctuary for people, too: there are school visits and 90 volunteers help manage the site.

    My eureka moment of believing we had done the right thing, says Forbes Adam, was when Meg Abu Hamdan, who records butterflies here, told me: When I walk through the gate of Three Hagges, I step into my 25 acres of hope. And also when I held my first pygmy shrew, came across wood anemone flowering and saw my first marbled white butterfly.

    Forbes Adam has since created a charity, the Woodmeadow Trust, which is advising more than a dozen other community groups and landowners on woodmeadow projects, from Yorkshire to London. Its really exciting that we are starting to inspire other people, says Forbes Adam. Our aspiration is a woodmeadow in every parish.

    But can it really be wise to lose productive food-producing fields to flowers? We have to look at the bigger picture, argues Forbes Adam. It brings huge numbers of pollinators to the landscape, which benefit all the neighbouring farmers.

    Some rewilders may scorn this careful management for not allowing nature to run free. But Dines points to his results. I started with a field with hardly any flowers. Ive got 9m flowers on a summers day. Are you going to tell me thats not rewilding? Ive put the wild back into that field. Unfortunately I only own a few acres, but if every farmer did one little meadow, wed soon bring wildlife back.

    If you dont have a garden, join local groups (or your parish council) that manage parks, playing fields, church yards or school grounds. Encourage them to create pollinator strips or allow areas of long grass in summer. Many people still see long grass as untidy, but will be won over if it is filled with flowers and framed by short grass or mown paths.

    Any lawn or verge can be rewilded. Some remove turf and top-soil before sowing. Or just scuff up existing sward with a spade and a rake to make space for new seed. I use Emorsgate Seeds for native wildflowers, but if you can find a local seed source, that is even better.

    Add native yellow rattle seeds to lawns. The rattle parasitises the grass and enables other wildflowers to grow.

    Plantlife urges people to sign up to No Mow May. Ideally a wildflower meadow should be cut (with grass cuttings removed) in late summer. But creating a mosaic of long and short grass in a garden is best for diversity. Leave grass cuttings in a sunny corner for grass snakes.

    Every Flower Counts. Take part in this plant survey and Plantlife will give you your own personal nectar score, so you can see how many bees your wilder lawn is feeding.

    Wildflowers for the Queen: A Visual Celebration of Britains Coronation Meadows by Hugo Rittson Thomas will be published by Wildflower Press on 4 February. To buy for 43.50 (RRP 50) go to bookshop.theguardian.com

    See the original post here:
    Flower power! The movement to bring back Britain's beautiful meadows - The Guardian

    WATCH: Limerick dairy farmer wins on the double for grassland and milk – Limerick Leader - February 4, 2021 by Mr HomeBuilder

    IF YOU win one award you are doing something right but it you win two then you are doing a lot right.

    It was announced last week that the winner of the disadvantaged land category in the Grassland Farmer of the Year Awards was Pallasgreen's Sean Barry. Back in 2018, Sean and his father Patrick were the Limerick regional winners of the Dairygold Milk Quality Awards for consistently supplying the best quality milk to the co-op throughout 2017.

    The Grassland Farmer of the Year Awards ceremony took place as a live webinar last week. The 15 finalists were profiled and winners of each category along with the overall winner were announced.

    The Barrys milk 70 cows with a stocking rate of 3.2 LU/ha on the milking platform in Ballyluddy. The milking platform is split in three with a busy main road and minor road.

    The farm is mostly heavy soil type and as such has required essential investments in grazing infrastructure, drainage and re-seeding to get it to where it is today.

    In 2020 the farm grew over 13 T DM/ha. Sean aims to get cows out grazing by March 10 but this varies year to year. To help this Sean walks the farm daily in early March to identify dry areas within paddocks that the cows can graze. He also ensures they are not full of silage before going out and uses on-off grazing to get grass into the diet.

    Sean included clover in reseeds in 2020 and plans to continue to do this in 2021 but he ensures the soil fertility is correct before this. The Barrys cows produced 485 Kg MS per cow, supplied to Dairygold Co-op, from 670 kg meal in 2019.

    Sean was one of 15 finalists in the Grassland Farmer of the Year competition which recognises farmers who are achieving high levels of grass utilisation in a sustainable manner. Irish agriculture faces serious challenges in trying to meet Greenhouse Gas and Ammonia emissions targets. Improved Nutrient Management and the use of clover are now more important than ever.

    The sustainability of our livestock production must improve. Some farmers have to operate with difficult land and the competition also recognises this. Awards are made to those farmers who demonstrate excellence in specific areas of grassland on their farm and Sean is certainly doing that to win the disadvantaged land category.

    The Grassland Farmer of the Year competition is run as part of the Teagasc Grass10 grassland campaign. The focus of Grass10 is on encouraging grassland farmers to grow and utilise more grass in the animals diet. The aim is to help farmers utilise 10 tonnes grass dry matter per hectare per annum, with 10 grazings per paddock per year.

    The Grassland Farmer of the Year competition is supported by the Department of Agriculture, Food and the Marine, Teagasc, Allied Irish Bank, FBD Insurance, Grassland Agro and Irish Farmers Journal.

    Limerick has a proud record in the competition with John and Olivia Macnamara, Knockainey previously winning the overall award and the dairy enterprise award.

    Niall Moloney, Crecora has been named Young Grassland Farmer of the Year. While John Leahy, Athea, won the most improved grassland merit award.

    View original post here:
    WATCH: Limerick dairy farmer wins on the double for grassland and milk - Limerick Leader

    Gardening: In the pink: Dianthus – Saskatoon StarPhoenix - December 10, 2020 by Mr HomeBuilder

    Baths Pink has soft pink flowers with deeply fringed petals.

    Firewitch produces a profusion of magenta flowers.

    Frosty Fire has bright red 2.5-cm (1-in.) flowers.

    Spotty has cherry red flowers with prominent white spots from late spring to early summer.

    Tiny Rubies is smaller in all aspects than the species. It bears bright pink 1-cm (0.4-in.) flowers on 5- to 10-cm (2-4 in.) stems for most of the summer.

    Cottage pinks (D. plumarius) form dense mounds of linear, blue-green leaves. Fragrant pink 2.5-cm (1-in.) single or double flowers are produced in clusters of three to five on stems that are 30 to 60 cm (12-24 in.) high.

    Sweetness is a seed grown variety that blooms its first year. Flowers vary from white to deep rose with red eyes and are very fragrant. It is very compact to 15 cm (6 in.) tall.

    Pink Princess has light pink, semi-double flowers throughout the summer. It was developed in Cheyenne, Wyoming and has been grown in prairie gardens since the 1960s.

    Sara Williams is the author of Gardening Naturally with Hugh Skinner, Creating the Prairie Xeriscape, and with Bob Bors, Growing Fruit in Northern Gardens. She gives workshops on a wide range of gardening topics throughout the prairies.

    This column is provided courtesy of the Saskatchewan Perennial Society (SPS; saskperennial@hotmail.com). Check our website (saskperennial.ca) or Facebook page (facebook.com/saskperennial). All Saskatchewan Perennial Society events are on hold until further notice.

    Read the original here:
    Gardening: In the pink: Dianthus - Saskatoon StarPhoenix

    Big Ten Basketball Mathematical Analysis, Addendum: The Ideal Schedule – The Only Colors - December 10, 2020 by Mr HomeBuilder

    A few weeks back, I presented a three-part series in which I performed a detailed analysis of the Big Ten schedule. In Part One, I looked at the Big Ten conference slate and did some math related to the strength of each teams schedule. The results suggested that MSU was given a schedule of average difficultly, while potential conference favorite Wisconsin (according to the Kenpom preseason projections) was given a remarkably easy schedule.

    In Parts Two and Three, I made additional calculations based on Monte Carlo simulations to estimate the odds for each Big Ten team to win both the regular season title and the Big Ten Tournament Title. In both cases, Wisconsin also had the best preseason odds.

    In the days that followed, the idea that the schedule was biased in favor of the Badgers weighed on my mind. I wondered if it would be possible to construct a schedule that was more fair. It soon became clear to me that I could use the same tools that I used to analyze the strength of each teams Big Ten schedule to address this issue. Once I saw the entrance to the rabbit hole, I had to try to find the bottom.

    The first step was to craft an algorithm that would generate a random Big Ten conference schedule based on its current form. The schedules have each team playing a total of 20 games. Seven of the opponents are played twice (once at home and once away). The remaining six opponents are either played only at hone or only on the road. With a bit of work, I was able to write some simple code that allowed me to generate random schedules for the entire conference fairly quickly.

    Once I accomplished this, I needed to define a way to quantify the fairness of a given, random set of schedules. In Part One of the series referenced above, I explained my methodology for calculating strength of schedule. The basic principle is to calculate the expected number of wins that an average Power Five teams (as good as, for example, Indiana) would earn with any given schedule. It is trivial to make this calculation for all 14 Big Ten schedules by using Kenpom efficiency data to estimate win probabilities for any set of Big Ten games.

    I also performed a corrected version of this calculation by artificially adjusting the strength of one average Big Ten team (Indiana) to instead be equal to that of the team whose schedule is being analyzed. This corrects for a potential bias in the numbers due to the fact that weak teams and strong teams dont play themselves.

    In order to quantify the fairness of the entire Big Ten schedule, I calculated both the range and standard deviations of my calculated strengths of schedule (both regular and corrected) for all 14 individual schedules. In other words, I looked at the quantitative difference between the toughest and easiest schedules as well as the overall variance for all 14 schedules.

    I then scanned the list of randomly generated schedules, searching for the one with the smallest standard deviation of corrected schedule strengths. I generated over 40,000 potential schedules and found the one with the smallest variance. This is perhaps the one of the most optimized schedule that can be created, based on the projected preseason strength of each team in 2020.

    To refresh our memories, Table 1 below summarizes the actual 2020 Big Ten conference schedule. Relative to each row, the green cells represent the single-play home games while the orange cells are single-play road games. For example, MSU plays Wisconsin only once at home this year and only plays Maryland on the road.

    Without doing any math at all, it is easy to see why Wisconsin has such a schedule advantage. The Badgers are the only Big Ten team with two scheduled games against the four projected weakest teams in the conference (Maryland, Penn State, Northwestern, and Nebraska). Furthermore, the Badgers draw Kenpoms No. 2 and No. 3 ranked teams (Ohio State and Michigan State) only once.

    First, I was curious how the actual schedule compares to a set of randomly generated schedules, based on the fairness metrics described above. Figure 1 below makes this comparison.

    As the histograms above shows, not all schedules are created equally. Just based on range alone (the difference between the hardest and easiest schedule) some full conference schedules can differ by over a game and a half in expected wins. However, it is possible to find schedules where the team with the easiest schedule has less than a half of a win advantage over the team with the most difficult schedule.

    If the raw, uncorrected strength of schedule values are considered (the blue bars), the real 2020 schedule is quite a bit less fair than the an average, random schedule based on both range and variance. If the corrected values are used (the orange bars), the 2020 schedule is average.

    However, it is clearly possible to do better. If I select the individual schedule that showed the lowest observed corrected strength of schedule variance (located all the way to the left in the histogram in the right panel of Figure 1) that schedule looks like this:

    While it is always difficult to compare one wall of numbers to another, the schedule shown in Table 2 looks a lot more fair on its face compared to the real schedule. First of all, there is much better balance at the bottom of the table. The top eight Big Ten teams all play the collective bottom four conference teams a total of six times. No team plays all four of these teams twice (as Wisconsin does in the actual schedule) and only two teams (Rutgers and Minnesota) play this collection of teams a total of seven times.

    A similar balance is also found at the top of the table. Every team which the exception of Illinois, Michigan, and Purdue, have exactly two single-play matchups among the top four projected Big Ten teams (Wisconsin, MSU, Ohio State, and Iowa). That all said, this schedule still seems challenging for Nebraska, which draws four single-play games amongst the bottom four Big Ten teams not named Nebraska.

    A more quantitative comparison of the actual and optimized Big Ten schedules is shown below in Figure 2. In this case, the individual team schedules are ordered from easiest (left) to hardest (right) to make the comparison easier to see. Also, the left panel shows the raw strength and schedule calculation, while the right panel gives the corrected values which are what were used in the optimization.

    The data in both panels shows a clear difference in the two full conference schedules. For the raw strength of schedule calculation (left panel) the difference between the easiest schedule and ninth easiest schedule is over half a win in the actual schedule, but less than a quarter of a win in the optimized schedule.

    In both cases, there is a drop off in expected win for two most difficult schedules. In both the actual and optimized scenarios, these schedules belong to Northwestern and Nebraska, the two teams that project to be the weakest in the Big Ten this year. This is no coincidence, as once again those two teams suffer from not getting to play themselves.

    Fortunately, the corrected strength of schedule appears to handle for this problem. As the right panel shows, the full range of expended wins for an average power five team (i.e. strength of schedule) only differs by slightly over 0.3 wins which seems to be about as fair of a schedule that can be created. In the actual schedule, this range is almost 0.8 wins.

    One could make the argument that the it would be better to optimize the schedule based on the raw strength of schedule values as opposed to the corrected values. After all, the left panel still suggests that Northwestern and Nebraska draw the short straw. On some level that is true.

    However, a schedule optimized based on the raw strength of schedule values would effectively be creating a schedule that is easier for the weaker teams and harder for the stronger teams. While this seems like a nice gesture, what happens if Nebraska is actually much better than expected? In this scenario, the Huskers would suddenly have an advantage, simply because they were under-valued in the preseason. For this reason, I believe that the corrected values are the best way to find the most fair Big Ten schedule.

    That said, there are a few aspects of the schedule that are still perhaps not ideal. For example, Michigan State and Michigan only play each other once. The same is true of Purdue and Indiana. In reality, it would be better if these types of rivalry games would be protected. There may be other constraints on scheduling of which I am not aware.

    In any event, it would be simple to modify my algorithm to exclude any random schedule that does not meet these criteria. I am confident that this method can and perhaps should be used to create a better Big Ten schedule. If anyone in the MSU athletic department or the Big Ten office is reading this and would like my assistance, send me a direct message. (I am sort of kidding... but not really).

    The strength of schedule calculations discussed above provide a pathway to create a schedule that is mathematically more fair. The next logical question is if the impact of a more level playing field actually matters. I touched on this issue briefly in the original series, but I would like to revisit the topic now that we have a more balanced schedule to compare to the original one.

    For this study, I once again ran a series of Monte Carlo simulations on the full Big Ten season using both the actual Big Ten schedule and the optimized schedule shown in Table 2 above. This simulation outputs the odds for each Big Ten team to win the regular season Big Ten title (outright or shared). For here out in order to keep things simple, I will focus only on the results of the simulation for Wisconsin (the Kenpom presumed favorite) and Michigan State.

    In addition to the baselines simulation using preseason Kenpom efficiency margin values to assign each team a certain strength, I ran three additional simulations in order to try to separate the effect of the schedule from the effect of each teams strength. In one simulation, I artificially swapped the strength of MSU and Wisconsin. In effect, this simulates the effect of Wisconsin playing MSUs schedule while MSU plays Wisconsins schedule.

    In the other two simulations, MSU and Wisconsin are assumed to be equal in strength, either both as good as Wisconsins preseason projection or both as good as MSUs preseason projection. This set of simulations was performed using both the actual schedule as well as the optimized schedule. The results are shown below in Figure 3.

    This figure contains a ton of information. The best way to extract information is to make various comparisons between the different scenarios. If we start with the real schedule (left panel) we can see that in the baseline simulation (using the real Kenpom efficiency margin preseason data) Wisconsin has almost exactly a 20-percentage point advantage over Michigan State in the race for the Big Ten title. The is the same data that I presented in Part Two of my series.

    If the two teams had schedules with equal difficulty, swapping the schedules should also swap the championship percentages. In the case of the optimized schedule, this is true within one percentage point. But in the actual schedule, there is a significant gap.

    In the baseline case Wisconsins championship odds (38.5 percent) are notably higher than MSUs odds if their strengths are swapped (31.9 percent). In effect, this is equivalent to Wisconsin playing MSUs schedule, and it implies that Wisconsins schedule is worth about six and a half percentage points. A similar analysis of MSUs baseline odds (18.4 percent) to the odds for Wisconsin if they were equally as good as MSU (23.9 percent, the second red bar) gives a five and and half percentage point difference.

    A similar story is told by the third and forth sets of bars. In these cases, MSU and Wisconsin have equal Kenpom efficiency margins, but in both cases, the Badgers odds are better (by seven percentage points and five and a half percentage points). It should also be noted that in the right panel of Figure 3 (the optimized schedule) if MSU and Wisconsin have the same efficiency margin, they also have almost identical odds.

    Looking at the data from another point of view provides insight into how much of an advantage Wisconsin has simply because of the higher preseason efficiency margin. In other words, how much does an advantage in actual (or simulated) team strength impact the title odds?

    This value can be estimated by comparing the first two red bars to each other or the first two green bars to each other in either panel. This is simply the difference in odds that each team would have with the same schedule and either their MSU or Wisconsins strength. The difference varies between 13.5 and 14.5 percentage points.

    All of this data points to one basic fact: Wisconsins calculated 20-percentage point preseason advantage in the regular season odds is due to a one-third contribution of a schedule advantage (about 6.5 percentage points) and a two-thirds contribution (about 13.5 percentage points) from Wisconsins estimated efficiency margin advantage.

    In addition, I feel that Figure 3 makes a fair case that if an ideal Big Ten schedule is constructed, this schedule advantage shrinks to zero. That said, I should also point out that in all four comparisons in the right panel of Figure 3, MSU actually has about a one-percentage point advantage over the Badgers, which appears to arise due to a combination of MSUs very slightly easier schedule in the ideal scenario, combined with the slightly larger home court advantage that Kempon assigns to the Breslin Center relative to the Kohl Center.

    While the results of the analysis above are interesting (at least to people like me...and I assume anyone still reading this) there are still a few questions that remain. This entire analysis hinges on the idea that the preseason efficiency margin data is correct. The season is now several games in and already some teams have moved up or down. I showed above that Wisconsins preseason efficiency margin advantage (+1.79 compared to MSU) is worth about 13.5-percentage points. But, what happens when that value changes? How sensitive are the title odds to these numbers?

    In order to clarify this, I ran one additional simple set of simulations. In this case, I fixed the efficiencies margins for all Big Ten teams and varied the efficiency margin of Wisconsin from a value of 18.00 (roughly the quality of a bubble team, ranked around No. 30 in Kenpom) all the way to to a value of 30.00 (roughly the quality of the No. 1 ranked team in Kenpom in any given year).

    I then calculated both the expected win totals and regular season title odds for Wisconsin using the actual schedule. Those results are shown below in Figure 4. The same data is also shown for MSU (using their fixed, preseason efficiency margin as a reference).

    Note that the actual preseason values for each team are shown with the large, solid data point. The data in Figure 4 looks about like one would expect it to look. A bubble team (with an efficiency margin of 18) would be expected to win just over 10 games in conference play and have less than a 10 percent chance to win the Big Ten regular season, while a team ranked No. 1 in Kenpom (with an efficiency margin of 30) would be expected to win close to 16 games and would have over an 80 percent chance to win the Big Ten.

    The correlations are not truly linear (especially for the title odds) but I included the linear fit equations in each plot for reference. In both cases, the slopes provide a good rule of thumb for the sensitivity of expected wins and title odds. Specifically, for every 1.00 improvement in efficiency margin, a teams expected win total will increase by about 0.44 wins and the title odds will improve by about 6.7 percent for a team in a conference like the Big Ten in 2020.

    Note that the second number is consistent with Wisconsins roughly 13-percentage point schedule-independent advantage mentioned above, considering their almost 2.00 lead in efficiency margin over the second best Big Ten team. Also note that Wisconsins schedule advantage is worth almost exactly 1.00 in efficiency margin.

    The artificial change in Wisconsins strength makes a relatively small impact on MSUs expected wins and even odds. MSU only faces Wisconsin once, so it makes sense that MSUs expected win total is almost unaffected. As for the title odds, MSUs odds decrease gradually as the strength of the Badgers increases. Even in the cases where Wisconsin is really good, MSUs odds only drop by eight to ten percentage points. Basically, MSU still mows their own grass, more or less.

    Finally, this analysis begs the question of the general correlation between expected wins and regular season title odds. That correlation is shown below and was derived for the original baseline simulation of all 14 Big Ten teams combined with the Wisconsin sensitivity analysis discussed above.

    Again, this plot makes a lot of sense. If a teams expected win total is around 10 wins or less, the odds to win the Big Ten are very low (five percent or less). Those odds increase fairly linearly to close to 90 percent as the expected win total approaches 16. Recent history suggests that the regular season Big Ten champs usually win roughly 16 games in a 20-game schedule. Furthermore, the slope of the line suggests that every whole win improvement is worth about 17 percentage points in championship odds.

    At this point, I think that it is safe to say that I have beaten the preseason Kenpom data to a bloody pulp. Fortunately, the Big Ten season is right around the corner, and the analytical tools at my disposal will allow for a real time tracking of expected wins, regular season championship odds, and Big Ten tournament seeding and odds.

    The first Big Ten game tips off on Sunday, Dec. 13, and I plan to give a brief update on the numbers which reflect the changes that have occurred since the preseason data was released. I will then provide updates following most MSU games. That is all for now. Until next time, enjoy, and Go Green

    Original post:
    Big Ten Basketball Mathematical Analysis, Addendum: The Ideal Schedule - The Only Colors

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