Moscow’s plan for Ukraine’s church

Afterforcing the reversal of Ukraine's political course and offering President Yanukovych a financial and economic bailout last year, Russia is apparently now planning to intervene directly in Ukraines church affairs.

The events surrounding the EuroMaidan over the last sixty days have shown just how important the church remains to Ukrainians. This concerns primarily the three main confessions that trace their roots to the Kyiv Metropolitanate created by the Patriarchate of Constantinople during the times of Prince Volodymyr the Great: the Ukrainian Orthodox Church Kyiv Patriarchate (UOC KP), the Ukrainian Orthodox Church subordinate to the Moscow Patriarchate (UOC MP) and the Ukrainian Greek-Catholic Church (UGCC), which remains in union with the Pope of Rome.

The Kremlin plans to suborn Ukraine politically, economically and culturally. Support for separatist movements, coupled with the December 2013 economic accords signed in Moscow, form part of the first two pillars of this strategy. As a serious instrument to advance Russian political interests in Ukraine, the Moscow Patriarchate is indispensable to the construction of the third pillar.

The leader of the UOC MP, Metropolitan Volodymyr, is in grave health; uncharachacteristically he was absent from any Christmas-related celebrations this year, even in the hospital.

Metropolitan Volodymyr, an ethnic Ukrainian, has maintained a measure of balance of power within the UOC MP and allowed the church to retain relative independence from Moscow. His successor will determine whether this church continues on its Ukrainian path, or will fall into complete dependency on Russia, fulfilling the dreams of the Patriarch of Moscow, Kirill, and the Kremlin.

There are several potential candidates among the church's bishops to replace Metropolitan Volodymyr. Most often mentioned as a successor is Metropolitan Antoniy (Pakanych), but the candidacies of metropolitans Onufriy of Bukovyna, and Ilarion from Donetsk are also under discussion.

However, none of these hierarchs enjoy Moscows full trust. Therefore, since 2011 there is a plan to appoint the head of the UOC MP from Moscow, in particular, Metropolitan Hilarion (Alfeev), a Russian citizen, the Russian Orthodox Churchs (ROC) chief diplomat and Patriarch Kirills closest adviser.

An appointment like this would be akin to President Vladimir Putin sending someone from his inner circle to run Ukraine's economy as prime minister.

To implement this strategy, Patriarch Kirill might come to the council that elects the new Metropolitan of Kyiv, where either he or his loyal bishops in Ukraine will propose to elect Hilarion (Alfeev). To ensure the desired result, the voting procedure will be made open and not by secret ballot.

This appears to be a plausible scenario, especially after we witnessed how, under Kremlin pressure, Ukraine's leadership changed its political orientation on the eve of signing a civilizational pact with the European Union.

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Moscow's plan for Ukraine's church