Trump Narrows the Gap as Swing States Sit on the Fence – FX Empire

As at the time of writing, the FT projects Biden to win 263 Electoral College votes. This is significant for a number of reasons.

Firstly, Biden falls short of the 270 votes needed to win. This is the first time since we have been tracking the polls that Biden falls short of the 270.

Secondly, the slide has been significant. Back on 5th August, the FT had projected Biden to win 308 Electoral College votes. This had then fallen to 298 and held steady at 298 through the summer.

In the current week, the FT had projected Biden to win 269 votes on Tuesday before falling to 263 votes.

If you take away the 60 Electoral College votes leaning in Bidens favor, that leaves 203 votes.

For the U.S President, the FT project a haul of 122 Electoral College votes. This was a recovery to the FT projection of 122 back on 5th August.

Trump still sits below the FTs 132 projection from 19th July, however.

With Biden projected to hold 203 solid votes, Trump is projected to hold just 77 solid votes, with 45 leaning.

This is also significant. Back on 5th August, the FT had projected Biden to have 194 sold votes and 114 leaning.

So, while Biden has seen his lead narrow, the number of solid votes have, in fact, risen.

For Trump, the number of solid votes had stood at 80 the last time he had a projected 122 haul, back on 5th August. 42 votes had been leaning in his favor at that time.

So, it is less convincing this time around despite the rise in projected votes.

At the time of writing, the FT had 153 states sitting on the fence. Classified as toss-up states, these are states where the difference in poll numbers between Biden and Trump is less than 5 percentage points.

Amongst the 8 states that fall within the toss-up category, there are a number of significant ones up for grabs

These are Texas (38 E.C votes), Florida (29 E.C votes), Ohio (18 E.C votes), Michigan (16 E.C votes), N. Carolina (15 E.C votes), and Arizona (11 E.C votes).

For U.S President Trump to take the 2020 Presidential Election, he would need 148 of the 153 E.C votes up for grabs. This is assuming of course that all of the 45 leaning Electoral College votes go in his favor.

For Joe Biden, he would need Maine-2 (1 E.C vote) and one other, assuming that all 60 leaning Electoral College votes go his way.

On face value, therefore, the odds remain heavily stacked in Bidens favor, in spite of the narrowing in the polls.

If we look at the key U.S states that tend to be election barometers:

Missouri continues to lean in favor of Trump and the Republicans, with Kansas also leaning in Trumps favor.

For Biden, Illinois, New Mexico, and Oregon remain solid blues, with New Hampshire and Pennsylvania leaning in favor of Biden. Of concern, however, will be the loss of Michigan that had leaned in Bidens favor and now sits on the fence.

So, as things stand, out of the swing states that include Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania, only Pennsylvania sits with Biden.

The rest are on the fence and up for grabs

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Trump Narrows the Gap as Swing States Sit on the Fence - FX Empire