Hansen: Bad policy begets worse, repealing the GWSA is the solution – Vermont Biz

by Meg Hansen One signature and one vote thwarted the attempt to upend heating in Vermont's built environment. Governor Phil Scott won the game of political ping pong against the Legislature, when the latter failed to override his veto of the Clean Heat Standard (CHS)bill by one vote.

The CHS was touted as the most impactful plan to meet the carbon reduction goals mandated by the Global Warming Solutions Act (GWSA). But Scott asked for the invoice upfront. Politicians who buy today with the promise of paying tomorrow (when they'llbe gone) were then forced to defang the bill.

The new version still lacked details on costs and impacts and delegated outsized policymaking authority to the three-member Public Utilities Commission. So, Scott rejected it.

This scheme may be dead but the ideology at its core climate catastrophism will return wearing a new pair of pants.

Scott nonetheless acknowledged the importance of reducing GHG emissions. One doesn't riseto the top of a system by denying its dogmas.

Not everyone though is fated to live as Havel's greengrocer. The few amongst us, whose breads arent buttered by the prevailing system, can ask questions, challenge climate catastrophism, and otherwise flirt with heresy.

Since1900, the average global temperature hasincreased by 1 degree Celsius (1.8 degree Fahrenheit). CO2 and other GHG emissions from fossilfuel combustion have warmed the planet by 1.5 degrees Celsius, whilesulfate aerosolsreleased by burning coal and oil have exerted a coolingeffect of 0.6 degrees Celsius.

The planet cooled from 1940 till 1975, after which thetemperature has been rising.Anthropogenic warming has thuslargely occurred since themid-1970s.

Serious critics acknowledge these facts.But they believe that Earth'scomplex dynamical system of temperature is influenced by multiple factors rather thancontrolled by CO2 alone.

Further, they disagreewith the claims of imminentapocalypse,whichoriginate from faulty computer models thathave never accurately predictedanycatastrophic occurrence.

Climate catastrophists assert that Earth will perish unless civilization drastically de-industrializes andeliminates fossil fuels. They blame GHG emissions forrising sea levels and worsening hurricanes, floods, droughts, and wildfires. Arethey right? According to the assessment reports by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) no.

Such claims, conflating the weatherwith Earths climate, have becomeubiquitous because of the systemiccorruption of climate science communication. Actual scientific results are rarely, if ever, found in the briefs for the press and policymakers.

Instead, clickbait stories win television ratings, votes, and the day. For example, the latest 4000-page IPCC report expresses lowconfidence that humans have impacted the long-term trends in meteorologicaldroughts, the frequency or intensity of hurricanes, and the probability or magnitude of floods.

Yet, the public was told that the study signaled a code red for humanity.

Climate catastrophizing makes for sound practical politics, but leads to unsound policies like the CHS and the GWSA. An energygrid is notoriously intractable. It can tolerate slow, deliberate modifications.

In contrast, abrupt and sweeping changes to large sectors, such as heating and transportation, will make energy unreliable and its costs prohibitive.

Moreover, renewableenergy technologies arenowhere near ready. Deploying immature technologies would add to the societal disruption.

The CHS planned to force Vermonters to install electric heat pumps thatbecome inefficient or fail in frigid weather. Vermont legislators did not pay heed to the public backlash in the UK last year, which paused the Britishgovernments effort to grow the heat pumpmarket by banning gas boilers.

The GWSAs targets are, in sum, unachievable.Future proposals to meet them could at best realize an immeasurable change to the atmosphere, but not without destabilizing society to the detriment of the non-wealthy. So, how do we make good climate policy?

1) Be honest about values. Increased economicactivity leads to higherGHG emissions but also poverty alleviation and greater life expectancy. The total population grew from 2 billion in 1900 to 7.9 billion today. During this period, the percentage of people living in extreme poverty dropped from82.5 percentto 9.2 percent.

WilliamNordhaus, co-recipientof the 2018 Nobel Prize in Economics,arguesthat requiring deep reductions in living standards to chase climate goals would amount to burning down the village to save it.

Would most Vermont lawmakers agree? Does theGWSA prioritize human flourishing or aim to altogether end human influence on the environment?

2) Be honest about the pros and cons of energy sources. As abundant, reliable, scalable, versatile, and energy dense sources, fossil fuels have founded modern civilization.

Eco-activist Annette Smith, who has lived with a renewable energy system for decades,testifiedabout the CHS before the Vermont Senate Natural Resources and Energy Committee, I have made investments. I have weatherized myhouse. I have replaced thewindows. I do not have alternativesfor propane. There is nothing else.

Fossil fuel powered technology has built resilient infrastructure and early warning systems, which have lowered the annual worldwide deaths due to extreme weather fromhalf a million a century ago to14,000 in 2020. Ithas also minimized air, soil, and water pollution, making the world cleaner and more livable.

Despite $2.6 trillioninglobal investments by the end of 2019, wind and solar energy produce amere 3 percent ofthe world's electricity and do not contributeto the thermal, industrial, and heavy-duty transportation sectors.

Finally, nuclear power is safe, cost-effective, carbon-free, and should be decriminalized.

3) Be humble.Grandiose plans that imposeuncertain and likely devastating outcomes on middle-income workers and families should go nowhere.

Humility will be required to admit that the Global Warming Solutions Act is a failure; courage will be required to repeal it. Neither animates Montpelier.

Meg Hansen is president of the Ethan Allen Institute, a policy research and educational nonprofit organization in Vermont.

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Hansen: Bad policy begets worse, repealing the GWSA is the solution - Vermont Biz