Feinberg Forecast: The Awards Landscape After Telluride and Toronto, Before New York

Ellar Coltrane in 'Boyhood' (IFC Films), Felicity Jones in 'The Theory of Everything' (Focus Features) and Benedict Cumberbatch in 'The Imitation Game' (The Weinstein Co.)

Every week through the 87th Oscars on Feb. 22, 2014, The Hollywood Reporter's lead awards analyst Scott Feinberg will post an updated "Feinberg Forecast," wherein he presents a summary of major developments since the last update that helped to shape his current opinions and then lists his revised projections. For more about Feinberg and how he arrives at his projections, scroll to the bottom of this post.

Factoring into this week's charts...

Without further ado, here is this week's Feinberg Forecast...

BEST PICTURE Frontrunners Interstellar (Paramount) Unbroken (Universal) Boyhood (IFC Films) The Imitation Game (The Weinstein Co.) The Theory of Everything (Focus Features) American Sniper (Warner Bros.) Birdman (Fox Searchlight) Foxcatcher (Sony Pictures Classics) Gone Girl (20th Century Fox) Into the Woods (Disney) Major Threats Wild (Fox Searchlight) Inherent Vice (Warner Bros.) Selma (Paramount) Whiplash (Sony Pictures Classics) Mr. Turner (Sony Pictures Classics) The Grand Budapest Hotel (Fox Searchlight) Possibilities Big Eyes (The Weinstein Co.) A Most Violent Year (A24) Dear White People (Lionsgate/Roadside Attractions) Get On Up (Universal) The Judge (Warner Bros.) Long Shots Chef (Open Road Films) Men, Women & Children (Paramount) Trash (Universal) Exodus: Gods and Kings (20th Century Fox) How to Train Your Dragon 2 (DreamWorks Animation/20th Century Fox)

BEST DIRECTOR Frontrunners Christopher Nolan (Interstellar) Angelina Jolie (Unbroken) Richard Linklater (Boyhood) Alejandro G. Inarritu (Birdman) Clint Eastwood (American Sniper) Major Threats Bennett Miller (Foxcatcher) Morten Tyldum (The Imitation Game) James Marsh (The Theory of Everything) David Fincher (Gone Girl) Paul Thomas Anderson (Inherent Vice) Possibilities Wes Anderson (The Grand Budapest Hotel) Mike Leigh (Mr. Turner) Rob Marshall (Into the Woods) J.C. Chandor (A Most Violent Year) Jean-Marc Vallee (Wild) Ava DuVernay (Selma) Long Shots Tim Burton (Big Eyes) Jason Reitman (Men, Women & Children) Damien Chazelle (Whiplash) Ridley Scott (Exodus: Gods and Kings)

BEST ACTOR Frontrunners Eddie Redmayne (The Theory of Everything) Michael Keaton (Birdman) Benedict Cumberbatch (The Imitation Game) Bradley Cooper (American Sniper) Steve Carell (Foxcatcher) Major Threats Joaquin Phoenix (Inherent Vice) Jack O'Connell (Unbroken) David Oyelowo (Selma) Channing Tatum (Foxcatcher) Timothy Spall (Mr. Turner) Ben Affleck (Gone Girl) Possibilities Bill Murray (St. Vincent) Chadwick Boseman (Get On Up) Oscar Isaac (A Most Violent Year) Matthew McConaughey (Interstellar) Ellar Coltrane (Boyhood) Jake Gyllenhaal (Nightcrawler) Mark Wahlberg (The Gambler) Long Shots Ralph Fiennes (The Grand Budapest Hotel) Miles Teller (Whiplash) Robert Downey, Jr. (The Judge) Christian Bale (Exodus: Gods and Kings) Tom Hardy (Locke) James McAvoy (Filth) Still Awaiting Domestic Distribution Kevin Costner (Black and White) Richard Gere (Time Out of Mind) Michael Shannon (99 Homes)

BEST ACTRESS Frontrunners Julianne Moore (Still Alice) Reese Witherspoon (Wild) Amy Adams (Big Eyes) Rosamund Pike (Gone Girl) Hilary Swank (The Homesman) Major Threats Marion Cotillard (The Immigrant) Shailene Woodley (The Fault in Our Stars) Jessica Chastain (The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby) Possibilities Emily Blunt (Into the Woods) Marion Cotillard (Two Days, One Night) Anne Dorval (Mommy) Long Shots Anna Kendrick (The Last 5 Years) Nicole Kidman (Queen of the Desert) Michelle Monaghan (Fort Bliss) Still Awaiting Domestic Distribution Jennifer Aniston (Cake) Jessica Chastain (Miss Julie)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR Frontrunners Josh Brolin (Inherent Vice) Mark Ruffalo (Foxcatcher) J.K. Simmons (Whiplash) Ethan Hawke (Boyhood) Robert Duvall (The Judge) Major Threats Edward Norton (Birdman) Tom Wilkinson (Selma) Takamasa Ishihara (Unbroken) Christoph Waltz (Big Eyes) Possibilities Andy Serkis (Dawn of the Planet of the Apes) John Goodman (The Gambler) Benicio Del Toro (Pablo Escobar: Paradise Lost) Albert Brooks (A Most Violent Year) Neil Patrick Harris (Gone Girl) Long Shots Benicio Del Toro (Inherent Vice) Chris Pine (Into the Woods) Garrett Hedlund (Unbroken) Mark Ruffalo (Begin Again)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS Frontrunners Patricia Arquette (Boyhood) Felicity Jones (The Theory of Everything) Keira Knightley (The Imitation Game) Laura Dern (Wild) Meryl Streep (Into the Woods) Major Threats Jessica Chastain (A Most Violent Year) Julianne Moore (Maps to the Stars) Emma Stone (Birdman) Carrie Coon (Gone Girl) Carmen Ejogo (Selma) Sienna Miller (American Sniper) Possibilities Marion Bailey (Mr. Turner) Jessica Chastain (Interstellar) Anne Hathaway (Interstellar) Jena Malone (Inherent Vice) Reese Witherspoon (Inherent Vice) Long Shots Rene Russo (Nightcrawler) Anna Kendrick (Into the Woods) Vanessa Redgrave (Foxcatcher) Kristen Stewart (Still Alice) Still Awaiting Domestic Distribution Adriana Barraza (Cake) Holly Hunter (Manglehorn) Octavia Spencer (Black and White)

Excerpt from:
Feinberg Forecast: The Awards Landscape After Telluride and Toronto, Before New York