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Wave of New Construction Expected to Peak Next Year, Pushing Up Vacancy and Increasing Competition for Renters Even as Conditions Continue To Favor Strong Demand for Apts.
CoStar Group economists are forecasting that apartment vacancy rates will rise in 46 of the 54 top U.S. metros over the next four quarters due to the massive wave of current apartment deliveries and new apartment projects starting almost daily.
According to their most recent analysis, the U.S. apartment vacancy rate will rise from the current 4.1% to over 5% by the end of 2015. Although a significant trend shift, apartment vacancies are still expected to remain near 10-year lows across most of the nation, even with the addition of hundreds of thousands of new units.
"At this point in the cycle, weve seen supply take hold almost everywhere," Yuen said. "Some late-recovery markets like Las Vegas arent yet seeing vacancy increases yet, but even there, developers are beginning to find opportunities."
Dallas, Washington, D.C. and Houston have each seen more than 10,000 units delivered over past four quarters, while apartment inventories in smaller markets like Charlotte and Raleigh have increased by nearly 5% as apartment construction fans out. Denver and Houston, each with upwards of 20,000 units under construction, will see record deliveries over the next two years, Yuen added. Despite the expected impact on rents from all the new construction, because most of the new building is expensive luxury properties, analysts noted a widening affordability gap. In the Oakland/East Bay Area, for example, the average income has risen by about 15% to over $75,000 in the strengthening economy. However, rents have grown by a staggering 30% over the same period and now require more than 25% of annual income, Yuen said.
"Lack of affordability is certainly something we are beginning to see capping rent growth, especially at the high end of the market," Yuen said.
Year-over-year growth in effective rents, which has gradually decelerated since 2013, is expected to drift below 2% in tertiary and secondary as well as the top U.S. markets during 2015 and 2016.
"We've been surprised by the low levels of concessions we're seeing today, given the large amount of new supply," said CoStar director of U.S. research, multifamily Luis Mejia, a co-presenter along with quantitative analyst Mark Hickey.
But with rent growth slowing further and more supply on the way, property income growth is also expected to finally slow down heading into 2015, which may prompt investors to buy more office buildings rather than apartments in search of higher yields, the analysts noted.
Net operating income (NOI) for apartments, which peaked at about 6% in mid-2012 and was the only major property type to show growth from 2010 to 2013, is now the only sector to show year-over-year income deceleration.
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Apartment Construction Boom Finally Slowing Rent Increases as Market Shifts Into Expansion Phase
Construction activity took a tumble in November, sparking concerns about the health of the economy.
Construction activity took a tumble in November, sparking further concerns about the health of the economy.
The construction industry contracted for the first time since May, according to figures from the Australian Industry Group and Housing Industry Association on Friday.
The Performance of Construction Index dropped eight points to 45.4 in November - below the 50 level that separates expansion from contraction.
A slowdown in public building activity and demand for housing were also weighing on the industry, with the reduced workload forcing job losses, the report said.
The disappointing report comes after official figures on Wednesday showed a shock slowdown in the Australian economy in the September quarter, sparking debate about whether the cash rate should be slashed to a new record low.
Growth in house and apartment building decelerated in November, amid a decline in new orders, the report said.
But home building will need to re-accelerate in coming months, if it's going to help offset the slowdown in mining construction.
"Perceptions regarding Australia's short-term economic outlook have dampened recently and today's result will hardly buoy the prevailing mood," HIA chief economist Harley Dale said.
"The rate of expansion in detached house and apartment building activity slowed in November.
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Concern grows as construction tumbles
BARBARAELLEN KOCH | The Long Island Science Center would move if apartments get built.
A five-story apartment building planned for the Long Island Science Center site went from market-rate luxury apartments to workforce housing affordable apartments earlier this year.
The plans have now seen another change.
The latest breaking news is that we intend for this to be housing for the artist community, said Marianne Garvin, the president and chief executive officer of the non-profit Community Development Corporation of Long Island.
She was speaking to members of the Riverhead Industrial Development Agency Monday night, during a public hearing on proposed tax incentives for the project, which is a joint venture between the CDC and Rochester-based, for-profit developer Conifer Realty.
The project is being called Peconic Crossing.
The building would still contain 48 affordable rental units. In order to win a lease, proposed tenants would have to meet income guidelines based on the area median income for Suffolk County, which is $73,600, according to the CDC.
However, it will give a preference to prospective tenants who are artists and can document that, Ms. Garvin said.
The project would have a common area for arts and a balcony overlooking the Peconic River that could be used for art events, she said.
The project would be modeled after the 45-unit Artspace apartment complex in Patchogue, according to Allen Handelman, Conifers vice president of development.
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Affordable housing for artists planned for downtown Riverhead
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