Fundamental Forecast for Gold: Neutral
Gold was off by more than 2.1% this week with the precious metal closing at $1715 in New York on Friday. Prices had fallen more than 2% on Wednesday alone before closing the session down 1.28% with futures volumes hitting record highs early in the week. Immediately rumors circulated of an erroneous "fat fingered" trade after bullion plummeted $25 at the open of futures trade with Reuters reporting the "equivalent of more than 2 million ounces of COMEX gold futures changing hands in less than five minutes." The session was marked by massive swings in equity markets as investors reacted to developments out of Washington with the Dow coming back from a triple digit decline to close markedly higher on the session. The rebound in gold off the lows was satisfactory however, and while we cannot rule out another test of the 1693-1705 region, the broader prospects for gold remain constructive.
With the Fed pledging to maintain its accommodative stance on monetary policy for the foreseeable future, investors are likely to favor gold as a classic hedge against inflationary pressures and with the end of operation twist quickly approaching, the Fed may look to implement other non-standard measures which are unlikely to be sterilized in nature. That said, the Fiscal Cliff threat continues to drive price and could trigger further weakness as prices continue to loosely track equity markets on the downside. If concerns are put to rest before the year's end, bullion should remain well supported as broader commodities advance.
The Fiscal Cliff debate has continued to grip markets with remarks by various members of congress fueling volatility across asset classes. But with major event risk on tap next week, the negotiations are likely to be brushed aside until the deadlock is broken as investors look ahead to interest rate decisions from the RBA, BoE, ECB, RBNZ and the BoC. The flurry of central bank policy meetings lead up to the Labor Department's non-farm payrolls report on Friday where we will get an updated assessment on the state of the US employment sector. NFPs are expected to rise by just 93K for the month of November with the unemployment rate widely expected to hold at 7.9%. Due to the importance of next week's docket, we maintain a neutral stance here while highlighting key levels to watch for as we head into the first week of December trade.
From a technical standpoint gold has continued to trade within the confines of an ascending channel formation off the November lows with prices closing out the week just above channel support at $1714 after rebounding off the key 61.8% Fibonacci retracement taken from the October decline. A break below the this level risks a pullback into the $1695-$1705 support zone with only a compromise of this region invalidating the longer term gold outlook. Near-term resistance stands at the $1735-$1738 pivot zone where multiple longer-term Fibonacci extensions rest with a break above this mark challenging the monthly highs and our secondary objective at $1775 (our primary objective cited two weeks ago triggered last week at $1750). Note that daily RSI has continued to ho ld below the 50-mark with a close below 40 suggest in a deeper correction into figure may yet be at hand. With the start of the week and month holding so much event risk, the December opening range promises to be a telling one as we head into the close of 2012. -MB
DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets. Learn forex trading with a free practice account and trading charts from FXCM.
Read the original post:
Forex Analysis: Gold Sheds 2% But Holds Monthly Range Ahead of Major Event Risk
- Las Vegas author Lissa Townsend Rodgers sheds light on historic women in organized crime - Las Vegas Weekly - March 23rd, 2024 [March 23rd, 2024]
- Meta sheds more light on how it is evolving Llama 3 training it relies for now on almost 50000 Nvidia H100 GPU, but ... - TechRadar - March 23rd, 2024 [March 23rd, 2024]
- The Nigerian currency sheds off N500 against the US dollar - Business Insider Africa - March 23rd, 2024 [March 23rd, 2024]
- How the Princess of Wales' story sheds light on the importance of cancer screening - CBC.ca - March 23rd, 2024 [March 23rd, 2024]
- Library approved for storage shed thanks in-part to a $10000 donation from Friends of the Library - mykxlg.com - March 23rd, 2024 [March 23rd, 2024]
- Wake County students build sheds to help with nationwide demand - CBS17.com - March 23rd, 2024 [March 23rd, 2024]
- Quantum tornado sheds light on black holes - Innovation News Network - March 23rd, 2024 [March 23rd, 2024]
- Trent Brown sheds light on his decision to sign with Bengals in free agency - Stripe Hype - March 23rd, 2024 [March 23rd, 2024]
- Revealed: documents shed light on shadowy US far-right fraternal order - The Guardian US - March 23rd, 2024 [March 23rd, 2024]
- Fire destroys home and sheds in Troy | Local News | foxbangor.com - FOX Bangor/ABC 7 News and Stories - March 23rd, 2024 [March 23rd, 2024]
- Insider Sheds Light on Stefon Diggs Future With Bills After Cryptic Post - Heavy.com - March 23rd, 2024 [March 23rd, 2024]
- Sister Wives Star Garrison Brown's Sister Sheds Light on His Mental Health Struggles After Tragic Death - TooFab - March 23rd, 2024 [March 23rd, 2024]
- Synopsys (NASDAQ:SNPS) sheds 3.7% this week, as yearly returns fall more in line with earnings growth - Yahoo Finance - March 23rd, 2024 [March 23rd, 2024]
- Affidavit sheds light on charges against Tell City pastor - Eyewitness News (WEHT/WTVW) - March 23rd, 2024 [March 23rd, 2024]
- Gisele Bndchen Sheds Light on Life After Tom Brady's 2022 Divorce: The Only Time Something Is Fixed Is When You ... - EssentiallySports - March 23rd, 2024 [March 23rd, 2024]
- Toba Supereruption Sheds Light on Early Human Migration - Mirage News - March 23rd, 2024 [March 23rd, 2024]
- Miami Dolphins LB Anthony Walker Sheds New Light on Significant Health Scare - Pro Football Network - March 23rd, 2024 [March 23rd, 2024]
- Tyrese Haliburton sheds harsh truth on sports betting: I'm a prop - Sportskeeda - March 23rd, 2024 [March 23rd, 2024]
- The Daily Show Sheds Viewers with Co-Host Format - imdb - March 23rd, 2024 [March 23rd, 2024]
- French tax officials to hunt out undeclared sheds and verandas - The Connexion - March 23rd, 2024 [March 23rd, 2024]
- D'Angelo Russell sheds light on subtle disparity between sharing locker room with LeBron James & Kobe Bryant - Sportskeeda - March 14th, 2024 [March 14th, 2024]
- Steph Curry sheds light on his most savage trash-talking incident, eerily similar to Larry Bird's - Sportskeeda - March 14th, 2024 [March 14th, 2024]
- NOPD body cam footage sheds light on 'high-risk' arrest, use-of-force investigation - NOLA.com - March 14th, 2024 [March 14th, 2024]
- DEI-vestment: University of Florida sheds 'inclusion' for innovation Minding The Campus - Minding The Campus - March 14th, 2024 [March 14th, 2024]
- Bedford volleyball coach sheds light on investigation, leave of absence - Monroe Evening News - March 14th, 2024 [March 14th, 2024]
- Can World Hunger Be Eradicated by 2030? New Research Sheds Light on Key Puzzle Piece - SciTechDaily - March 14th, 2024 [March 14th, 2024]
- Alex Kurtzman Sheds Light on Star Trek Discovery's Tough Road to Season 5 - Den of Geek - March 14th, 2024 [March 14th, 2024]
- Is the iPhone SE 4 Worth the Wait? A New Report Sheds Light On it - Gizchina.com - March 14th, 2024 [March 14th, 2024]
- PEPE sheds 8% in 24 hours: Are investors losing confidence? - AMBCrypto News - March 14th, 2024 [March 14th, 2024]
- Fire moves from shed to house, damaging home in Cloquet - Northern News Now - March 14th, 2024 [March 14th, 2024]
- "COPA 71" documentary sheds light on forgotten Women's World Cup - Euronews - March 14th, 2024 [March 14th, 2024]
- Photo Series Sheds Light on Homelessness with Pets - Mirage News - March 14th, 2024 [March 14th, 2024]
- 'I thank the firefighters:' Neighbor on cars and shed catching fire in Bedford County - WSET - March 14th, 2024 [March 14th, 2024]
- New Study Sheds Light on Where India's People Came From - The Wire - March 14th, 2024 [March 14th, 2024]
- Who Was Behind Sam Altman's Ouster From OpenAI? New Reports Sheds A Light On Key Executives' Role - Micro - Benzinga - March 14th, 2024 [March 14th, 2024]
- Romanian stock indices start week in red, TTS sheds most - SeeNews - March 14th, 2024 [March 14th, 2024]
- XRPs gradual appreciation mystery: Ripple CTO sheds light on it - AMBCrypto News - March 14th, 2024 [March 14th, 2024]
- Are Edibles Safer Than Smoking? New Study Sheds Light on Cannabis and Heart Problems - Verywell Health - March 14th, 2024 [March 14th, 2024]
- New Protein Structure Sheds Light on Anti-Cancer Immunotherapies - Mirage News - March 14th, 2024 [March 14th, 2024]
- Whale menopause sheds light on human evolutionary mystery - The Borneo Post - March 14th, 2024 [March 14th, 2024]
- Podcast: In the Shed Ep 11 - BikePortland - February 7th, 2024 [February 7th, 2024]
- Sponsor spotlight: Winter-proof your space - The Original Mini Barns' guide to durable sheds and maintenance tips - My Edmonds News - February 7th, 2024 [February 7th, 2024]
- RTX 4080 Super teardown sheds light on power connector controversy PCB shows traces for two 8-pin connectors ... - Tom's Hardware - February 7th, 2024 [February 7th, 2024]
- Israeli-American activist Peled sheds light on decades of terror in Palestine - Middle East Monitor - February 7th, 2024 [February 7th, 2024]
- Research sheds insight on replacement heifers - Beef Magazine - February 7th, 2024 [February 7th, 2024]
- Being a YouTuber Musician is Way More Expensive Than You Think: Guitarist Sheds Light on Costs of Online Career - Ultimate Guitar - February 7th, 2024 [February 7th, 2024]
- CDC Sheds Light on High HIV Risk Among Trans Women - POZ - February 7th, 2024 [February 7th, 2024]
- Metal shed cave in kills one, injures several others - China Daily - February 7th, 2024 [February 7th, 2024]
- Former island resident sheds light on Middle East crisis - Kodiak Daily Mirror - February 7th, 2024 [February 7th, 2024]
- Home Items You Really Shouldn't Be Storing In An Outdoor Shed - House Digest - February 7th, 2024 [February 7th, 2024]
- 'Where is Wendy Williams?' Documentary Trailer Sheds Light on Icon's Personal Struggles - Just Jared - February 7th, 2024 [February 7th, 2024]
- Cha Eun Woo sheds a tear in 'Entity' concept film & photos - allkpop - February 7th, 2024 [February 7th, 2024]
- Fire damages 6 vehicles, 1 shed in Tornillo - KTSM 9 News - February 7th, 2024 [February 7th, 2024]
- National survey sheds new light on outdoor participation - Newton County Times - February 7th, 2024 [February 7th, 2024]
- Research Sheds New Light on Origin of Syphilis, Rescues Columbus' Reputation - Science & Health - Haaretz - February 7th, 2024 [February 7th, 2024]
- Insider Sheds Light On Recent Chicago Bears-Washington Trade Rumors - Sports Mockery - February 7th, 2024 [February 7th, 2024]
- Kelly Clarkson Sheds Light on the Health Diagnosis That Kickstarted Her Weight Loss - Parade Magazine - February 7th, 2024 [February 7th, 2024]
- MAFS star sheds light on extreme wedding day filming: 'Everyone's really wasted' - Yahoo Lifestyle Australia - February 7th, 2024 [February 7th, 2024]
- L.A Coliseum Controversy Silenced as NASCAR Insider Sheds Light on Severity of the Storm - EssentiallySports - February 7th, 2024 [February 7th, 2024]
- Transient accused of starting fire in shed by Sunnyside Museum - Yakima Herald-Republic - February 7th, 2024 [February 7th, 2024]
- Police report sheds light on Redmond man's death from cold exposure after crash, fall on rocks above Dry Canyon - KTVZ - January 22nd, 2024 [January 22nd, 2024]
- DC sheds light on 'House of Brainiacs' Superman crossover in April 2024 AIPT - AIPT - January 22nd, 2024 [January 22nd, 2024]
- Eviction filing sheds light on 5-year-olds deadly fall from KC apartment - WDAF FOX4 Kansas City - January 22nd, 2024 [January 22nd, 2024]
- 'She adored Harry' Robert Hardman sheds light on The Queen's 'special relationship' with grandson - GB News - January 22nd, 2024 [January 22nd, 2024]
- Cam Newton sheds light on Justin Fields' late hits with eye-opening, personal anecdote - NBC Sports Chicago - January 22nd, 2024 [January 22nd, 2024]
- Research sheds new light on moon rock formation solving major puzzle in lunar geology - Phys.org - January 22nd, 2024 [January 22nd, 2024]
- Novel mineral sheds light on rare-earth formation - China Daily - January 22nd, 2024 [January 22nd, 2024]
- Tangoe's Analysis Sheds Light on Taming Cloud Costs in 2024 - Techiexpert.com - TechiExpert.com - January 22nd, 2024 [January 22nd, 2024]
- Controversial F-Factor diet creator sheds uptown condo for $24 million - Crain's New York Business - January 22nd, 2024 [January 22nd, 2024]
- Tesla market valuation sheds $94 billion in first weeks of 2024 - CBT Automotive News - January 22nd, 2024 [January 22nd, 2024]
- Aryna Sabalenka Sheds Light on New Superstitious 'Routine' with Her Physiotherapist -'Anything for the Win' - EssentiallySports - January 22nd, 2024 [January 22nd, 2024]
- 'He Didn't Have the Courage' - Novak Djokovic Sheds Light on Ill-Tempered Interaction With Heckler at Australian Open - EssentiallySports - January 22nd, 2024 [January 22nd, 2024]
- Milwaukee Bucks' Adrian Griffin Sheds Light On Giannis Antetokounmpo's Sudden Injury Absence Vs. Cavs - Wisconsin Sports Heroics - January 22nd, 2024 [January 22nd, 2024]
- At the End of This Once-Barren Yard Is a Shed That's Now a Cozy Hideaway - Domino - January 22nd, 2024 [January 22nd, 2024]
- San Antonio shed fire spreads, causing $100,000 damage: Space heater suspected - FOX 29 - January 22nd, 2024 [January 22nd, 2024]
- Body found following shed fire | Community - The Leader News - January 22nd, 2024 [January 22nd, 2024]
- A Royal Expert Sheds Light on Why Kate Middleton and King Charles' Surgeries Were Announced on the Same Day - Yahoo Lifestyle Australia - January 22nd, 2024 [January 22nd, 2024]
- Tribune-Star Editorial: CANDLES again sheds light on darkness of hate speech - Terre Haute Tribune Star - August 20th, 2022 [August 20th, 2022]
- Digital mortgage firm Blend loses $478M, sheds more of workforce - The Real Deal - August 20th, 2022 [August 20th, 2022]
- Interview Sheds Light On Toyotas Thinking About EVs - CleanTechnica - August 20th, 2022 [August 20th, 2022]