Article updated: 6/1/2012 8:59 AM

Illinois House Republican leader Tom Cross of Oswego shows signs of stress while testifying during a House pension committee hearing at the Illinois State Capitol yesterday.

Associated Press

Efforts to repair the states public pension system before last nights midnight deadline died as Democrats and Republicans could not reconcile proposals that would require suburban school districts to pay more out of their own budgets for teachers retirement. Lawmakers could extend their spring session into summer, but starting today, legislation that takes effect immediately will require more votes to pass. Full story.

A major gambling expansion plan including slot machines at Arlington Park and casinos in Lake County and in Chicago is headed to the desk of Gov. Pat Quinn. The plan passed just hours before the General Assembly adjourned their annual session. An aide from Quinns office said the plan does not address the governors concerns over a lack of ethical oversight, but legislators said the plan included late additions that would further the ethics of the bill. Full story.

An Aurora man who broke five of his dogs teeth and left the animal bleeding from her nose has been sentenced to a year in prison for the November 2010 attack. Phillip Rinn, 43, had previously served jail time in the 1990s for killing his dog by running it over. He served 60 days in 1993 after admitting to chaining and dragging his dog behind his vehicle. Full story.

An attorney representing the family of a 20-year-old Minnesota man who was found unresponsive in Kane County jail and later died wants to have his doctor perform a second autopsy on the man. The Kane County sheriffs department said Keith Renfroe Jr. suffered self-inflicted injuries but said the man did not hang himself. The familys attorney claims sheriffs deputies gave the family a different story, saying Renfroe Jr. hung himself. I think theres some pretty significant confusion about what the hell happened here, said attorney Michael Padden. Full story.

Friends, family and teachers are remembering 11-year-old Jose Antonio Zamudio, who was struck and killed by a vehicle in Round Lake, as an inquisitive, witty and eager-to-learn boy. Zamudio was riding his bike across Rollins Road when he was struck by a pickup truck Wednesday night, having just started his summer vacation a day before. Its such a shame, said Constance Collins, superintendent of Round Lake Area Unit District 116. Teachers said he was a wonderful student, was well-liked by his friends and staff members, and will be truly missed. Full story.

Mostly cloudy skies with a possible lingering shower will remain throughout the day. Its about 51 degrees right now, but should reach the mid-60s by the end of the day. Temperatures will drop back to about 50 degrees over night, but temperatures will increase throughout the weekend to 80 degrees on Sunday. Full story.

Police and rescue officials are on the scene of an accident on Euclid Avenue and Quentin Road in Palatine, and another on Plank Road and U.S. Route 20 near Pingree Grove. Motorists in Naperville should find an alternate route around Book Road between 111th Street and 87th Street due to road construction. Full story.

View original post here:
Dawn Patrol: Gambling expansion yes, pension reform no

JOHN WAWROW ORCHARD PARK, N.Y. The Associated Press Published Thursday, May. 31, 2012 7:50PM EDT Last updated Thursday, May. 31, 2012 7:52PM EDT

Forget extending Shawne Merriman any belated birthday wishes. For someone who turned 28 last week, the Buffalo Bills defensive end suddenly feels as if he's actually turning back the clock.

A year older? I'm like Benjamin Button, man, Merriman said with a smile, referring to the fictional movie character who aged in reverse. I'm going backward.

On the field, Merriman took a big step forward Thursday by fully taking part in his first team practice since having season-ending surgery to repair a partially torn right Achilles tendon in November.

Merriman's presence at the Bills second voluntary minicamp session came two days after he received a clean bill of health from James Andrews, the doctor who performed the operation.

Confident he's put his injury troubles behind, the NFL's 2005 defensive rookie of the year believes he's finally in a position to regain the form that earned him three Pro Bowl selections and the nickname Lights Out as having been one of the league's most dominating pass rushers.

I feel young, Merriman said. Anybody that will get a chance to watch me this year will see I'm moving around as I did when I came into the league.

The opportunity to finally prove himself couldn't come soon enough for a player whose future was being questioned, and who is entering the final year of his contract with Buffalo.

He ran out of second chances in San Diego two years ago, when the Chargers released him after five-plus seasons. And Merriman's barely made a dent in Buffalo, since the Bills took a chance by acquiring him off waivers in November 2010.

He finished the 2010 season on injured reserve after aggravating his Achilles tendon injury in his first practice with the Bills. And Merriman had nine tackles and two sacks in starting only five games last year with Buffalo before electing to have season-ending surgery.

Continued here:
Merriman feeling rejuvenated after first practice

After a horrendous April, Heath Bell and the Marlins have had something to shout about in May. (AP)

The Marlins began the season in April with the fanfare of a new ballpark, new uniforms, a garish home run sculpture and batch of marquee additions, but when manager Ozzie Guillens remarks about Fidel Castro struck a nerve both in Miami and inside the commissioners office, things quickly went south. The Marlins were just 8-14, mired in last place in the NL East when the calendar turned to May, but they reeled off a seven-game winning streak in the first week of the month, and thanks to a recent 8-3 run, their record this month is a major league best 21-8, for a .724 winning percentage. Via a just-completed three-game sweep of the Nationals, theyre now second in the division, one-half game behind Washington. If the season ended today, theyd host the Mets in the Wild Card game.

Dont start printing playoff tickets just yet, though. Though the Marlins are seven games above .500 at 29-22, theyve outscored opponents by only two runs, for a Pythagorean winning percentage of .505; in other words, theyre about three wins above expectations, the type of showing that tends to regress over the course of the season. During their 21-8 run, theyve outscored opponents 131-115, a balance that would be expected to produce a .559 winning percentage, or 16.2 wins in 29 games. In other words, theyve been playing way over their heads lately.

Theyve done so by winning the close ones, going 11-8 in one-run games, 7-3 in two-run games, and 2-5 in games decided by five runs or more. At 18-11 in games decided by two runs or less, their .621 winning percentage is fourth in the majors, and second in the league behind the Mets (16-6, .727). Their 29 close games is tied for third behind the Giants and Tigers at 30.

Again, such performances generally arent sustainable over the course of a full season. Last year, three teams finished with winning percentages above .600 in games decided by two runs or less, which was as many as the previous two seasons combined. From 2000 through 2011, just 21 teams have done so, around two per year. Such a frequency of close games generally wont last, either. The Marlins are on pace to play 92 such games, which would rank as the fourth-highest total since 2000. The record is held by Guillens world champion 2005 White Sox, who played 95 squeakers and went 61-34 (.642) in those games. Oddly enough, all five of the other teams who played at least 90 close games in a season had records below .500 in those games.

Sustaining such success in close games is hard because it usually comes down to clutch performances. Teams outdo their expected winning percentages (in terms of runs scored and runs allowed) by hitting or pitching especially well with runners on base or in scoring position, or in the tightest games what are generally referred to as high-leverage situations. For decades, sabermetricians have sought proof of the existence of clutch hitters players who routinely rise to the occasion and perform better and while anecdotally, fans tend to remember the big hits by the likes of David Ortiz and Derek Jeter, nobody, not even Bill James, has proven their existence to the satisfaction of the general stathead community. Thats not to say that clutch hits dont exist they happen every day its just that predicting who will be clutch is something of a fools errand. The best players tend to hit the best, regardless of the circumstances.

Clutch pitching is a bit of a different story, because managers have more control over how they deploy their relievers, particularly their best ones. They can bring them in to face the top hitters, whereas managers usually dont have a pinch-hitter better than their other hitters waiting in reserve, and they cant alter the order in which their players bat in big situations. Additionally, top closers such as Mariano Rivera tend to allow fewer hits on balls in play, seemingly in defiance of what weve learned over the past decade about the extent to which pitchers can control such outcomes.

So how are the Marlins doing it? Not with the wood in their hands; their batters are hitting a meager .233/.333/.344 with runners in scoring position, which in term of OPS ranks 11th, and is neither as good as their overall .246/.316/.381 line nor the NL average with runners in scoring position of .243/.334/.382. In high leverage situations, the Marlins are batting .249/.332/.398, which isnt significantly better than the league average of .254/.331/.392; their 730 OPS ranks eighth.

To the extent that one can put a finger on it, those close wins owe more to the pitching staff. Marlins pitchers have yielded a .232/.339/.334 line with runners in scoring position, compared to the NL average of .246/.337/.385; that resulting 673 OPS ranks fifth in the league, while the five home runs theyve yielded are tied for second. On the other hand, in high leverage situations the ones that have the greatest impact upon win expectancy, which generally arrive in the late innings when the number of outs is dwindling theyve yielded a .262/.339/.382 line, very close to to the NL average of .255/.331/.392; that resultant 722 OPS ranks 10th in the league.

Another way of looking at pitching performance under such circumstances is through Baseball Prospectus Fair Run Average stat. FRA expresses the number of runs allowed per nine innings after dividing up the responsibility when a pitcher departs with men on base by taking into account the run expectancy of the situation, the expected yield given the number of outs and the location of baserunners. It does away with the distinction between earned and unearned runs scaling about nine percent higher than ERA, pegged to the league scoring rate and adjusts for the quality of defensive support received. Furthermore, it credits the pitchers sequencing (a walk issued with the bases empty is less costly than one with the bases loaded) and his ability to get groundballs and infield popups, which come in handier with men on base.

More here:
Jay Jaffe: Don't expect Marlins' success to last

Getty Images

Last November, via a press release from a PR firm, the son of hip-hop mogulthe son ofDiddy/P. Diddy/Puff Daddy/Sean Puffy Combs announced that he was verbally committing to play football at UCLA. In February of this year, Justin Combs, who played his high school football in New Rochelle, New York, made good on that verbal pledge by putting pen to paper on National Signing Day.

Now, the fact that a very rich mans son will be utilizing a free scholarship has gotten some California residents unmentionables all wadded up.

A website called BusinessInsiders.com writes that state taxpayers are calling on the well-heeled freshman to turn over his $54,000 scholarship to students who need it more. Just who those taxpayers are isnt explained, although toward the end of the article the Occupy Wall Street movements rallying against tuition hikes at UCLA earlier this year is mentioned.

The argument appears to be that, since Justin Combs father is worth hundreds of millions of dollars, the family should be compelled to pay for his schooling regardless of his athletic merit that led to the scholarship offer in the first place.

Fortunately, theres a voice of well-reasoned sanity that can be heard above the inane howling.

Hesdone what he needs to do to be successful and in a meritocracy we have to accept that no matter who your father is, whether he be rich, poor or absent, that you can in fact be successful on your own merit, Dr. Steve Perry said during an interview on CNN. Theres nothing free about a Division I athletic scholarship. Its 40 hours-plus of work on campus every single week in order to maintain that scholarship. Theres nothing free about it, because this child will earn this.

This is about some people feeling that, because Sean P-Diddy Combs has in fact been successful, that his child should not receive any form of support for his own ability. We have to begin to celebrate success at some point in this country. We cant, as we say, hate on this brother (Combs dad) for his success or for his children for being able to be successful.

Amen.

UCLA determined that Combs, a cornerback, was worthy of receiving one of the couple of dozen or so football scholarships it hands out annually. Based on the Bruins evaluation of his football skills as well as what he brings to the academic side of the equation a 3.75 high school GPA what his father makes or doesnt make literally means nothing when it comes to exactly what the younger Combs received: a merit-based scholarship.

Read more from the original source:
CFT: Michigan-OSU recruiting spat continues

JIM WASHBURN WAS telling a story the other day, a story about himself, laced with equal parts down-home, self-deprecation and what-the-hell. It is what the Eagles defensive line coach does.

It was a story from back in 1999, when Washburn was interviewing for a defensive line coach job with Jeff Fisher, then the coach of the Tennessee Titans.

"It was me and him and Gregg Williams ooh, I shouldnt have said that," Washburn said, smiling. Williams, of course, is the man who was banished by the NFL for running a bounty program in New Orleans. Back then, Williams was the Titans defensive coordinator.

Washburn figured that Williams name isnt meant for polite NFL society at this point. So then he made sure to say it again.

"Me and him and Gregg Williams in Mobile, interviewing for a job," Washburn said. "I was coaching at the University of Houston. Jeff goes, You want to be the head coach someday, right? I said, Oh, no. He said, You want to be the coordinator, right? I said, No, I already did that and I was terrible.

He said, Oh, I got it. You want to be the best defensive line coach in the league, dont you? I said, Nah, Im not really interested in that. He said, What do you want to be? I said, I just want to coach the best defensive line in the league. Its not about me. I could care less. I just want to coach guys.

Thats the reason I came here," he said. "Because I knew this: theyre going to give you tools here. Some places, they dont. Some places, they dont have the contingency plan. If somebody gets hurt, they dont have a way to plug somebody in. Here, theyre going to get you players ... Thats all a life-timer like me, a position coach, can ask, is to have the tools. Theyre going to do that."

He has an overstocked cupboard this year, Jim Washburn does. In his second season on the Eagles staff, with the additions of draft choices Fletcher Cox and Vinny Curry, it is hard to imagine that, barring an injury, the Eagles arent going to have to let go of a good player or two from among Washburns group.

He calls Cox and Curry "sudden" and "quick" and "twitched-up dudes." He says Brandon Graham, a year removed from knee surgery, looks like a different player. When he talks about his bunch, led by Trent Cole, he lays it on pretty thick, and he realizes what he sounds like, and so he prefaces many of his comments with, "This is not the company line, or anything else ..."

Still, he keeps going.

Continue reading here:
Rich Hofmann: Eagles' line is all that matters to Jim Washburn

Getty Images

Last November, via a press release from a PR firm, the son of hip-hop mogulthe son ofDiddy/P. Diddy/Puff Daddy/Sean Puffy Combs announced that he was verbally committing to play football at UCLA. In February of this year, Justin Combs, who played his high school football in New Rochelle, New York, made good on that verbal pledge by putting pen to paper on National Signing Day.

Now, the fact that a very rich mans son will be utilizing a free scholarship has gotten some California residents unmentionables all wadded up.

A website called BusinessInsiders.com writes that state taxpayers are calling on the well-heeled freshman to turn over his $54,000 scholarship to students who need it more. Just who those taxpayers are isnt explained, although toward the end of the article the Occupy Wall Street movements rallying against tuition hikes at UCLA earlier this year is mentioned.

The argument appears to be that, since Justin Combs father is worth hundreds of millions of dollars, the family should be compelled to pay for his schooling regardless of his athletic merit that led to the scholarship offer in the first place.

Fortunately, theres a voice of well-reasoned sanity that can be heard above the inane howling.

Hesdone what he needs to do to be successful and in a meritocracy we have to accept that no matter who your father is, whether he be rich, poor or absent, that you can in fact be successful on your own merit, Dr. Steve Perry said during an interview on CNN. Theres nothing free about a Division I athletic scholarship. Its 40 hours-plus of work on campus every single week in order to maintain that scholarship. Theres nothing free about it, because this child will earn this.

This is about some people feeling that, because Sean P-Diddy Combs has in fact been successful, that his child should not receive any form of support for his own ability. We have to begin to celebrate success at some point in this country. We cant, as we say, hate on this brother (Combs dad) for his success or for his children for being able to be successful.

Amen.

UCLA determined that Combs, a cornerback, was worthy of receiving one of the couple of dozen or so football scholarships it hands out annually. Based on the Bruins evaluation of his football skills as well as what he brings to the academic side of the equation a 3.75 high school GPA what his father makes or doesnt make literally means nothing when it comes to exactly what the younger Combs received: a merit-based scholarship.

Continue reading here:
PHT: Big East TV deal not that lucrative

After a horrendous April, Heath Bell and the Marlins have had something to shout about in May. (AP)

The Marlins began the season in April with the fanfare of a new ballpark, new uniforms, a garish home run sculpture and batch of marquee additions, but when manager Ozzie Guillens remarks about Fidel Castro struck a nerve both in Miami and inside the commissioners office, things quickly went south. The Marlins were just 8-14, mired in last place in the NL East when the calendar turned to May, but they reeled off a seven-game winning streak in the first week of the month, and thanks to a recent 8-3 run, their record this month is a major league best 21-8, for a .724 winning percentage. Via a just-completed three-game sweep of the Nationals, theyre now second in the division, one-half game behind Washington. If the season ended today, theyd host the Mets in the Wild Card game.

Dont start printing playoff tickets just yet, though. Though the Marlins are seven games above .500 at 29-22, theyve outscored opponents by only two runs, for a Pythagorean winning percentage of .505; in other words, theyre about three wins above expectations, the type of showing that tends to regress over the course of the season. During their 21-8 run, theyve outscored opponents 131-115, a balance that would be expected to produce a .559 winning percentage, or 16.2 wins in 29 games. In other words, theyve been playing way over their heads lately.

Theyve done so by winning the close ones, going 11-8 in one-run games, 7-3 in two-run games, and 2-5 in games decided by five runs or more. At 18-11 in games decided by two runs or less, their .621 winning percentage is fourth in the majors, and second in the league behind the Mets (16-6, .727). Their 29 close games is tied for third behind the Giants and Tigers at 30.

Again, such performances generally arent sustainable over the course of a full season. Last year, three teams finished with winning percentages above .600 in games decided by two runs or less, which was as many as the previous two seasons combined. From 2000 through 2011, just 21 teams have done so, around two per year. Such a frequency of close games generally wont last, either. The Marlins are on pace to play 92 such games, which would rank as the fourth-highest total since 2000. The record is held by Guillens world champion 2005 White Sox, who played 95 squeakers and went 61-34 (.642) in those games. Oddly enough, all five of the other teams who played at least 90 close games in a season had records below .500 in those games.

Sustaining such success in close games is hard because it usually comes down to clutch performances. Teams outdo their expected winning percentages (in terms of runs scored and runs allowed) by hitting or pitching especially well with runners on base or in scoring position, or in the tightest games what are generally referred to as high-leverage situations. For decades, sabermetricians have sought proof of the existence of clutch hitters players who routinely rise to the occasion and perform better and while anecdotally, fans tend to remember the big hits by the likes of David Ortiz and Derek Jeter, nobody, not even Bill James, has proven their existence to the satisfaction of the general stathead community. Thats not to say that clutch hits dont exist they happen every day its just that predicting who will be clutch is something of a fools errand. The best players tend to hit the best, regardless of the circumstances.

Clutch pitching is a bit of a different story, because managers have more control over how they deploy their relievers, particularly their best ones. They can bring them in to face the top hitters, whereas managers usually dont have a pinch-hitter better than their other hitters waiting in reserve, and they cant alter the order in which their players bat in big situations. Additionally, top closers such as Mariano Rivera tend to allow fewer hits on balls in play, seemingly in defiance of what weve learned over the past decade about the extent to which pitchers can control such outcomes.

So how are the Marlins doing it? Not with the wood in their hands; their batters are hitting a meager .233/.333/.344 with runners in scoring position, which in term of OPS ranks 11th, and is neither as good as their overall .246/.316/.381 line nor the NL average with runners in scoring position of .243/.334/.382. In high leverage situations, the Marlins are batting .249/.332/.398, which isnt significantly better than the league average of .254/.331/.392; their 730 OPS ranks eighth.

To the extent that one can put a finger on it, those close wins owe more to the pitching staff. Marlins pitchers have yielded a .232/.339/.334 line with runners in scoring position, compared to the NL average of .246/.337/.385; that resulting 673 OPS ranks fifth in the league, while the five home runs theyve yielded are tied for second. On the other hand, in high leverage situations the ones that have the greatest impact upon win expectancy, which generally arrive in the late innings when the number of outs is dwindling theyve yielded a .262/.339/.382 line, very close to to the NL average of .255/.331/.392; that resultant 722 OPS ranks 10th in the league.

Another way of looking at pitching performance under such circumstances is through Baseball Prospectus Fair Run Average stat. FRA expresses the number of runs allowed per nine innings after dividing up the responsibility when a pitcher departs with men on base by taking into account the run expectancy of the situation, the expected yield given the number of outs and the location of baserunners. It does away with the distinction between earned and unearned runs scaling about nine percent higher than ERA, pegged to the league scoring rate and adjusts for the quality of defensive support received. Furthermore, it credits the pitchers sequencing (a walk issued with the bases empty is less costly than one with the bases loaded) and his ability to get groundballs and infield popups, which come in handier with men on base.

The rest is here:
Miami's Magnificent May

ReelzChannel Unveils More Original Programming

Another Epic Mini-Series, a Docu-Series and a Scripted Drama All Join the Lineup

A Story Rooted in the Bible, Pawn Stories From the Rich and Famous and a 1940s War-Time Drama

(Albuquerque, NM) Wednesday, May 30, 2012 - ReelzChannel - TV About Movies(R), telling big stories with big stars in major television events, today announced that additions to its programming lineup which begins this fall will feature another monumental mini-series, a docu-series and a scripted series.

The mini-series Barabbas will take viewers on a journey of biblical proportions continuing the story of the man whose life was spared by the decision to crucify Jesus Christ. To be shot on location in Tunisia, this sweeping epic will pick up where the Bible left off, following Barabbas in a powerful story of redemption. Beverly Hills Pawn is the first series born out of the network's development deal with Asylum Entertainment announced last May and is the docu-series that goes inside the world of an extraordinary pawn shop where Hollywood's elite go for quick cash. Beverly Hills Pawn revolves around shop owner Yossi Dina - a master businessman and former army captain who runs his luxury shop with an iron fist and is known for his savvy negotiating and his superior taste. The scripted drama Bomb Girls, starring Oscar(R)-nominee and Golden Globe(R)-winner Meg Tilly, takes place during World War II and captures a period when society was experiencing fundamental changes in the workplace and at home. At the heart of Bomb Girls are the stories of women who risk their lives in a munitions factory in support of the European front. Liberated from social and cultural restrictions, they embrace their newfound freedom, changing their lives - and the world around them - forever. Bomb Girls marks the network's second original series premiere with Muse Entertainment Enterprises, the first being the Emmy(R)-winning The Kennedys.

"REELZ is a network on the move with year to year prime time growth that no cable network could top. We're excited keep investing in our momentum for the benefit of our viewers, advertisers and distributors, packing our fall schedule with big stories, compelling and unforgettable characters and our first foray into reality programming," said Stan E. Hubbard CEO of ReelzChannel.

These three new series join the previously announced eight-part mini-series Ken Follett's World Without End, the second season of Steven Seagal's True Justice and the spy thriller series XIII which premieres Friday, June 29th. Fall also marks the return of the mini-series that started it all - The Kennedys. Boasting an all-star cast led by Emmy(R)-nominee Greg Kinnear as John F. Kennedy (JFK) and Barry Pepper who won the Emmy Award for Lead Actor in a Mini-Series or Movie for his portrayal of Robert F. Kennedy, The Kennedys also features powerful performances from Katie Holmes as Jacqueline Kennedy and Emmy-nominated Tom Wilkinson OBE as Joseph Kennedy, Sr. Nominated for 10 Emmy Awards, the mini-series won a total of four as well as three Gemini Awards, a History Makers International Award, a Directors Guild of America Award and a New York Festivals International TV & Film Grand Trophy Award. The Kennedys is a Muse Entertainment Enterprises production in association with Asylum Entertainment.

Added Hubbard, "With each new series, we'll showcase our network's TV About Movies approach with more original programming to take viewers behind the scenes of our series, into the careers of the casts and creators and deep into the vast world of movies that are inspired by the timeless intrigue of politics and religion, the lives of the rich and famous, and life during wartime."

REELZ unveils more original programming:

Mini-Series

Go here to see the original:
ReelzChannel Unveils More Original Programming

The Chicago Blackhawks were eliminated from the playoffs in the first round for the second straight season.

Off-Season Game Plan looks at a talented, and nearly full, Blackhawks roster that, if healthy, still has reasonable aims of competing for the Stanley Cup.

While there are always roster tweaks that contending teams are going to make, perhaps the biggest issue facing the Blackhawks this summer is the status of star forward PatrickKane. (Notice I said forward, as opposed to right winger, since Kane played centre quite a bit last season and could end up in the middle more in the future.)

Kane's offseason has been marked by a notorious drinking binge that was all-too-public for the Blackhawks and maybe it will serve as a wake-up call for Kane, who is obviously very talented, but perhaps somewhat troubled too.

However, if the Blackhawks would rather not wait to find out if Kane will get his act together, he would obviously be a blue-chip trading piece this summer. His production would not easily be replaced, and many of the players that might be capable of replacing his production won't be moved, but if the Blackhawks are willing to trade Kane, there will be other teams prepared to roll the dice on a player with his skills.

Aside from Kane, the Blackhawks have to hope for good health going into next season. JonathanToews missed the last quarter of the regular season with a concussion and MarianHossa was knocked out of the playoffs with his own concussion. Their health will have a major effect on whether the Blackhawks are contenders next season.

On defence, the Blackhawks already have six players under contract so, unless there are plans to deal one of those blueliners, they may not need much more than depth additions.

Finally, the goaltending. While the Blackhawks expect better from their goaltenders than what they received in 2011-2012, both are under contract for next season. Either that means Blackhawks GM Stan Bowman will be busy wheeling and dealing for an upgrade or he's left to hope that the same players can provide better results.

Many general managers would readily swap places with Bowman, because he has a talented core around which to build, but expectations and some serious issues should make this a challenging summer in the Windy City.

The TSN.ca Rating is an efficiency rating based on per-game statistics including goals and assists -- weighted for strength (ie. power play, even, shorthanded) -- plus-minus, hits, blocked shots, giveaways, takeaways, penalty differential and faceoffs. (Stats are listed in this format: G-A-PTS, +/-, PIM, GP). Generally, a replacement-level player is around a 60, a top six forward and top four defenceman will be 70-plus and the biggest stars will be over 80. EvgeniMalkin finished at the top of the regular season ratings with a 93.12.

Read this article:
Off-Season Game Plan: Chicago Blackhawks

After a horrendous April, Heath Bell and the Marlins have had something to shout about in May. (AP)

The Marlins began the season in April with the fanfare of a new ballpark, new uniforms, a garish home run sculpture and batch of marquee additions, but when manager Ozzie Guillens remarks about Fidel Castro struck a nerve both in Miami and inside the commissioners office, things quickly went south. The Marlins were just 8-14, mired in last place in the NL East when the calendar turned to May, but they reeled off a seven-game winning streak in the first week of the month, and thanks to a recent 8-3 run, their record this month is a major league best 21-8, for a .724 winning percentage. Via a just-completed three-game sweep of the Nationals, theyre now second in the division, one-half game behind Washington. If the season ended today, theyd host the Mets in the Wild Card game.

Dont start printing playoff tickets just yet, though. Though the Marlins are seven games above .500 at 29-22, theyve outscored opponents by only two runs, for a Pythagorean winning percentage of .505; in other words, theyre about three wins above expectations, the type of showing that tends to regress over the course of the season. During their 21-8 run, theyve outscored opponents 131-115, a balance that would be expected to produce a .559 winning percentage, or 16.2 wins in 29 games. In other words, theyve been playing way over their heads lately.

Theyve done so by winning the close ones, going 11-8 in one-run games, 7-3 in two-run games, and 2-5 in games decided by five runs or more. At 18-11 in games decided by two runs or less, their .621 winning percentage is fourth in the majors, and second in the league behind the Mets (16-6, .727). Their 29 close games is tied for third behind the Giants and Tigers at 30.

Again, such performances generally arent sustainable over the course of a full season. Last year, three teams finished with winning percentages above .600 in games decided by two runs or less, which was as many as the previous two seasons combined. From 2000 through 2011, just 21 teams have done so, around two per year. Such a frequency of close games generally wont last, either. The Marlins are on pace to play 92 such games, which would rank as the fourth-highest total since 2000. The record is held by Guillens world champion 2005 White Sox, who played 95 squeakers and went 61-34 (.642) in those games. Oddly enough, all five of the other teams who played at least 90 close games in a season had records below .500 in those games.

Sustaining such success in close games is hard because it usually comes down to clutch performances. Teams outdo their expected winning percentages (in terms of runs scored and runs allowed) by hitting or pitching especially well with runners on base or in scoring position, or in the tightest games what are generally referred to as high-leverage situations. For decades, sabermetricians have sought proof of the existence of clutch hitters players who routinely rise to the occasion and perform better and while anecdotally, fans tend to remember the big hits by the likes of David Ortiz and Derek Jeter, nobody, not even Bill James, has proven their existence to the satisfaction of the general stathead community. Thats not to say that clutch hits dont exist they happen every day its just that predicting who will be clutch is something of a fools errand. The best players tend to hit the best, regardless of the circumstances.

Clutch pitching is a bit of a different story, because managers have more control over how they deploy their relievers, particularly their best ones. They can bring them in to face the top hitters, whereas managers usually dont have a pinch-hitter better than their other hitters waiting in reserve, and they cant alter the order in which their players bat in big situations. Additionally, top closers such as Mariano Rivera tend to allow fewer hits on balls in play, seemingly in defiance of what weve learned over the past decade about the extent to which pitchers can control such outcomes.

So how are the Marlins doing it? Not with the wood in their hands; their batters are hitting a meager .233/.333/.344 with runners in scoring position, which in term of OPS ranks 11th, and is neither as good as their overall .246/.316/.381 line nor the NL average with runners in scoring position of .243/.334/.382. In high leverage situations, the Marlins are batting .249/.332/.398, which isnt significantly better than the league average of .254/.331/.392; their 730 OPS ranks eighth.

To the extent that one can put a finger on it, those close wins owe more to the pitching staff. Marlins pitchers have yielded a .232/.339/.334 line with runners in scoring position, compared to the NL average of .246/.337/.385; that resulting 673 OPS ranks fifth in the league, while the five home runs theyve yielded are tied for second. On the other hand, in high leverage situations the ones that have the greatest impact upon win expectancy, which generally arrive in the late innings when the number of outs is dwindling theyve yielded a .262/.339/.382 line, very close to to the NL average of .255/.331/.392; that resultant 722 OPS ranks 10th in the league.

Another way of looking at pitching performance under such circumstances is through Baseball Prospectus Fair Run Average stat. FRA expresses the number of runs allowed per nine innings after dividing up the responsibility when a pitcher departs with men on base by taking into account the run expectancy of the situation, the expected yield given the number of outs and the location of baserunners. It does away with the distinction between earned and unearned runs scaling about nine percent higher than ERA, pegged to the league scoring rate and adjusts for the quality of defensive support received. Furthermore, it credits the pitchers sequencing (a walk issued with the bases empty is less costly than one with the bases loaded) and his ability to get groundballs and infield popups, which come in handier with men on base.

Go here to see the original:
Why Marlins’ success likely won’t last