The Mobile Internet

It has been observed that the most profound technologies are those that disappear (Mark Weiser, 1991). They weave themselves into the fabric of everyday life until they are indistinguishable from it, and are notable only by their absence.

The feat of reticulating clean potable water into every house, so that it is constantly accessible at the turn of a tap, is a great example of the outcome of large scale civil engineering projects, combining with metallurgy, hydrology, chemistry and physics. But we never notice it until it is no longer there. Similarly, the adoption of household items such as the refrigerator, washing machine and stove. And of course let's not forget the feat of the domestic electricity supply grid. Prior to the construction of national grid systems, electricity's customers were entire communities and the service role was in lighting the town's public spaces at night. Domestic electricity was an unaffordable luxury for most households. Today we simply take it for granted.

Computers are also disappearing. Today's car has more than 100 million lines of code, running in more than 100 microprocessor control modules. What we see in the car is not these devices, but instead we have cars with anti-lock brakes, traction control, cruise control, automatic wipers and seat belt alarms. Each of the car's underlying control systems are essentially invisible, and about all we get to see is the car's human interface system. This visible system, essentially an entertainment controller and navigation service, is currently the space where both Apple and Google are jostling for position with the auto makers, while all the other microprocessor systems in the car remain unremarked and little noticed.

So how should we regard the Internet? Is it like large scale electricity power generators: a technology feat that is quickly taken for granted and largely ignored? Are we increasingly seeing the Internet in terms of the applications and services that sit upon it and just ignoring how the underlying systems are constructed?

What about the most recent Internet revolution, the massive rise of the mobile "smart" phone? Will the use of a personal mobile computing device be a long lasting artefact, or will it be superseded in turn by a myriad of ever smaller and ever more embedded devices?

What should we make of the mobile smart phone industry? Is this all-in-one device headed down the same path of future technology obsolescence as the mainframe computer, the laptop and even the browser?

Or are these devices going to be here to stay?

How did we get here?

One way to answer this question is to look at the evolution of the computer itself. Computing is a very new industry. Sure, there was Baggage's analytical engine in the 19th century, but the first computers appeared in the mid 20th century as programmable numerical calculators. These were massive feats of electrical engineering, built at a cost that only nation states could afford, and were of a size and fragility that they required their own building, power and conditioned environment. Valves are large, require high levels of power and are fragile. For the early computers, such as ENIAC, a small cadre of folk were taught how to program them and a far larger team of specialists were employed to keep these behemoths running. This model of computing was one that was only accessible for a few, and at a cost that was completely unaffordable for most.

The invention of the transistor changed everything. Transistors were far more robust, used far less power and could be produced at far lower cost, leading to the advent of the commercial computer in the 1960. These units, such as the ubiquitous IBM System 360, were used in large corporates and in universities and research institutions as well as in public agencies. They still required dedicated facilities and a team of operators dedicated to keep them running, but now they branched out from being numerical calculators into information storage and manipulation devices. These computers could store and manipulate text as well as numbers. At the time computers were seen as the device itself and the giants of the industry were manufacturers whose logo was stamped on the hardware. The value of the unit was the hardware: by comparison the residual value placed on the software was almost incidental.

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The Mobile Internet